Romania can all but seal it, while Bulgaria’s big week keeps the door open

With three rounds left, Romania have put themselves in the driver’s seat — 13 points from six, 12 goals scored, and the stingiest defense in the group (4 conceded). The reigning giants of old (best-ever: winners, WC 26) are now one win away from turning control into near-certainty, and Round 8 brings the most direct test: a meeting with Bulgaria, the only side still positioned to strike immediately.

Bulgaria arrive on a wave. After dropping their opener in Prague, they’ve steadied with draws against Romania and Serbia, then produced the week’s statement: a 4–0 rout of China followed by a 2–0 win over Czech Republic. The punchline is their midfield bite — Spass Bojichkov has already decided games late (two goals vs China), and Svetoslav Kostourkov has stacked top ratings in goal. Still, they’ve played one match fewer than Romania, and that game in hand makes this clash feel like a fork in the road.

Behind them, China and Serbia are running out of runway. China’s defense has leaked 12 and they’ve already been hit for four by Bulgaria, but the late double from Zong Ming Kung to rescue a 2–2 in Prague showed they can swing momentum fast. Serbia, winless and stuck on 3 points, must treat their match with China as a last stand — another slip and qualification becomes a mathematical long shot.

Round 8, then, is simple: Romania can almost close the book, Bulgaria can reopen the title race, and Serbia–China is survival football.

Algeria hold the high ground, but the USA still have the firepower to flip the script

Three rounds from the finish, Algeria have turned this group into a study in control: 13 points from five, unbeaten, and just two goals conceded. The credentials are real too — former world champions (WC 7) who stumbled last cycle now look ruthlessly efficient again, powered by a back line anchored by Mohamed Abdel Zouani and the steady stream of decisive moments from E. Nahnah (penalties included).

Yet Round 8 is the hinge. United States travel in as the only side with comparable momentum at the top end: 16 goals in six and a habit of blowing games open — the 5–0 demolition of Estonia and the 4–1 win over Canada showed their ceiling. The problem is volatility: losses to Algeria (0–2) and then Albania (0–2) have kept them chasing. Still, with 12 points already banked, this is the chance to turn qualification from “likely” into “locked”.

The subplot is equally sharp below them. Albania — once winners (WC 22) — have finally found bite, taking four points from their last two and handing the USA a clean 2–0 defeat. That resurgence makes Canada–Estonia huge: Canada sit on 4, Estonia on 2 with only one point taken away from home, and anything less than victory risks turning Round 9 into do-or-die territory.

One match could decide the top two. Algeria win, and they’re on the brink of qualification; the USA win, and suddenly the group opens up — with Albania lurking close enough to punish any wobble.

Three-way deadlock, and Croatia’s champions’ instinct meets India’s surge

If Group C needed a headline, it’s this: 10 points for Croatia, Latvia and India. With three rounds left, the margins are almost invisible — and Round 8 offers two matches that can finally put shape on a table that has refused to separate.

Latvia arrive level at the top after a statement win in India, stealing the points with Justins Ozols’ early strike and then defending it with discipline despite waves of pressure. It continued a theme for a side with world-champion pedigree: they’re not conceding (2 goals in 5) and they’ve made every chance count, whether it was the clinical 3–1 over India earlier or the ruthless 3–0 in Australia.

Across from them, Bosnia and Herzegovina sit on 8 and can still crash the party. They’ve shown both ends of their range: a five-goal blitz against Australia and the kind of stubborn control that produced a 0–0 with Latvia. If they can find that balance again, Latvia’s edge suddenly looks thin.

The other fixture feels like a turning point for reputations. India have been fearless — the 2–0 win in Croatia and the 4–1 rout of Australia proved their ceiling — but that recent 0–1 loss to Latvia exposed the cost of one lapse. Now they face a Croatia side that has rediscovered bite: Ante Merdjan has carried games on his shoulders, including the four-goal explosion in the 5–0 win over Australia.

And at the bottom, Australia are effectively out of the race: one point from six and 20 conceded leaves no room for miracles. The drama is all at the top — and after Round 8, the deadlock may finally crack.

A three-way tie at the top, and one match that could finally break it

Group D has turned into a balancing act: Iceland, Moldova and Italy are locked on 10 points, with only three rounds left and two World Cup tickets up for grabs. Nobody has been able to put daylight between themselves and the pack — and Round 8 brings a meeting that feels like a de facto qualifier.

Moldova vs Italy is the centerpiece. Moldova have already beaten the Italians 2–0 on Italian soil, and they’ve made a habit of tight, mature wins — including the late 1–0 in Thailand sealed by Dorian Croitoru. Italy, though, are peaking at exactly the right moment: back-to-back 1–0 wins over Thailand and Iceland have been built on control, patience, and the steady hand of Antonio Ametrano behind them. If the group is going to choose a frontrunner, this is the night.

Elsewhere, Thailand are staring at elimination: 2 points from 6 leaves them needing a perfect finish and help from everywhere. Still, they’ve proven awkward — draws with Italy and Moldova, and narrow losses to Iceland and Moldova — so South Africa can’t afford a sloppy performance. The South Africans, on 7, remain alive and dangerous after grinding out a 1–0 over Italy and holding Iceland 1–1.

And looming over it all is Iceland, top on goal difference despite a recent stumble against Italy. They’ve shown they can overwhelm teams (that 3–0 over South Africa was a statement), but with the table this tight, even a single slip now could be fatal.

Switzerland are flying — but the real scramble is for second

With 16 points from 6 and a ridiculous 20–1 goal difference, Switzerland have turned Group E into their personal highlight reel. The 11–0 demolition of Finland and back-to-back clean-sheet wins over Bangladesh and Slovakia have made it clear: first place is theirs to lose, and they barely look capable of blinking.

That leaves the group’s tension concentrated on the chase pack. Bangladesh sit second on 10 points after proving they can win ugly and survive pressure — the 1–0 over England and another 1–0 in Finland were both built around the authority of Abdullah Al Shakoor and a back line that rarely gives up clean looks. They couldn’t land a shot on target in Switzerland, but they didn’t collapse either — which matters in a sprint finish.

England are the wild card on 8. They’ve hammered Finland twice, but the points they dropped elsewhere sting: beaten 1–0 in Bangladesh, edged 3–2 in Slovakia, and then held to a flat 0–0 at home against the same Bangladesh side. If they want a top-two spot, the margin for error is basically gone.

Round 8 is where it gets sharp. England vs Slovakia is a direct shootout, while Bangladesh have a golden chance to pad their cushion against a Finland team still looking for a first point — and, remarkably, a first goal.

Ireland keep finding a way — and now the whole group feels live

If there was any doubt about Ireland after that opening-day loss, it’s long gone. Four wins from five have them top on 12 points, powered by a ruthless streak (the 7–2 explosion against Uruguay) and a growing habit of winning tight ones too — 1–0 away in Chile, then another 1–0 to edge Hungary despite being second-best for possession. Even the bad news — Padraig Wilson’s injury in Santiago that looks set to rule him out for most of the run-in — hasn’t knocked them off course.

Behind them, Bolivia have been box-office and volatile. They started by outclassing Uruguay and outgunning Hungary, and Vladimir Daher has been the group’s most decisive attacker — including that outrageous hat-trick in the 3–2 thriller against Uruguay. But the 2–0 setback in Hungary in Round 7 shows how quickly momentum can flip in this section.

That’s why Round 8 is massive: Uruguay vs Ireland is the pressure test at the top, while Chile vs Bolivia is a straight shot at dragging the race into a full-blown scrap. Chile have drawn and battled but lack goals; Bolivia have goals for days, but no guarantees. Something has to give.

Netherlands keep edging it, Malta keep hanging around

It hasn’t been pretty, but it’s been relentless: Netherlands are still unbeaten and top with 11 points, built on a defence-first identity and a knack for landing the decisive punch. They opened with a smash-and-grab in Sweden, survived a heavy shot count to draw Malta away, then flexed their control in the 3–1 win over Portugal. Since then it’s gone back to the grinder — an own-goal helped them draw Sweden, before Xian Siebes struck early to settle the return with Malta and keep the Dutch in pole position.

Malta are the group’s spoiler-in-chief on 8: stubborn, well-organised, and rarely beaten. They’ve taken points off everyone except the Dutch, and even in defeat they’ve made it uncomfortable — Zach Magri and the back line have been under siege for long spells but keep dragging games into their shape. The 0–0 in Portugal and the earlier draw in the Netherlands underline how hard they are to break.

That leaves Portugal needing a statement. Two goalless games in a row have stalled them, and now they face the one side above them with a real cushion. Sweden, still winless, have tightened up lately — three clean sheets in a row — but they can’t keep living on “nearly.”

Round 6 is simple: Portugal must turn possession into goals, while Netherlands just need another ruthless moment. And if Malta beat Sweden, the chase stays very real.

Poland’s grip loosens — and everyone can feel it

For five rounds, Poland looked like they were sleepwalking into qualification: tight at the back, clinical enough up front, and sitting on 12 points with only one goal conceded. Then came the reality check — Russia nicked a 1–0 win to blow the race open and drag the pack back within touching distance.

Now the spotlight swings to Turkey. Three draws and just four goals scored don’t scream “contender”, but they’ve quietly stayed on the leader’s shoulder at 9 points, and their shape travels. They’ve beaten Colombia and France, held Russia twice, and just proved they can survive long spells without the ball in the gritty 0–0 in Bogotá. If they can turn that resilience into something sharper, they can take control of the group.

Russia are the form wildcard at 8. After losing in Poland and France, they’ve responded with two huge clean-sheet wins — over Colombia and then Poland — with Andrei Konkin at the centre of everything. Colombia sit on 7 and feel like the “nearly” team: dangerous, but now paying for missed chances after dominating Turkey without reward.

At the bottom, France have shown fight — including a wild 3–2 loss to Colombia — but they’re running out of air on 3 points. Round 8 is brutal: Poland have to reassert themselves, and France are staring at a must-take opportunity.

A two-horse race — with Argentina ready to bite

After seven rounds, the group has the cleanest headline in the qualifiers: Belgium and Scotland are locked on 11 points, and neither has blinked often enough to let the other breathe. Scotland are still unbeaten and doing it the hard way — one-goal wins, disciplined shapes, and a penalty rescue to draw Belgium earlier in the campaign. Belgium, meanwhile, have looked more expansive but occasionally wasteful, none more so than the 0–0 stalemate with Argentina where they owned the ball and couldn’t land the knockout punch.

That draw matters because Argentina are suddenly the most awkward “fourth-place” side you’ll find. Yes, they’ve only got 4 points, but they’ve taken points off Belgium and beaten them once already — proof their ceiling is higher than their table position. With South Korea next, it’s a chance to turn promising performances into the kind of result that drags the whole group back into chaos.

Behind the leaders, Israel are hanging on at 7 after back-to-back clean sheets against South Korea, while Korea’s early firepower has been followed by costly slips — including blowing the rematch against Belgium and then losing 2–0 in Israel. The next week is simple: Belgium–Scotland decides who controls the finish, and Argentina’s response will decide whether it stays a duel or becomes a scramble.

Germany hit seven — but Montenegro still won’t budge

The table says Rep. of Montenegro are top, and the performances say they’ve earned it: unbeaten after five, conceding just once, and squeezing opponents with a defence that keeps turning tight games into points. The late penalty to beat Lithuania set the tone, the 0–0 at New Zealand underlined the control, and last round’s 2–0 in Lithuania was another reminder that they don’t need chaos to win.

Yet the group’s loudest statement belonged to Germany. After being humbled 3–0 in Peru on opening night, they responded with a grind — and then with thunder: a ruthless 7–0 demolition that rewrote the mood of the race. Wolfgang Dahnke was the headline act with four goals, while Nicolas Guenther added two and Germany suddenly look like the side nobody wants to face in a straight shootout for first.

That’s why Round 8 feels pivotal. Germany have a chance to turn that surge into position, but Lithuania’s stubborn streak (including a 0–0 in Germany) suggests it won’t be gifted. Meanwhile, Montenegro meeting New Zealand again is about patience: the Kiwis have drawn four times and live for stalemates. Peru, still level at the top on points despite their heavy setback, can’t afford another slip — because this group is suddenly one swing away from flipping entirely.

Denmark still lead, but the chase just turned vicious

For six rounds, Denmark had quietly built control at the top — two clean wins over Venezuela and Spain, and that early setback in Spain gradually fading into the background. Then Venezuela ripped up the script with a 3–0 statement, a result that didn’t just tighten the table, it injected real doubt into the run-in. Denmark remain first, but suddenly they’re being hunted rather than setting the pace.

The surge belongs to Slovenia. After losing 2–0 in Denmark, they’ve responded with the kind of wins that travel well: a disciplined 1–0 in Venezuela and an even bigger 1–0 in Spain. With just two goals conceded all campaign, they’re turning matches into narrow corridors — and few sides in this group look comfortable inside them.

Spain, meanwhile, have swung from bright starts to blunt finishes: they beat Denmark, then drew Slovenia, and have now gone back-to-back scoreless against Denmark and Slovenia. They’re still right there on points, but momentum has shifted away from the five-at-the-back machine that opened the group with swagger.

Round 8 lands like a fork in the road. Slovenia vs Denmark is the pressure fixture — a chance for the leaders to restore order, or for Slovenia to grab the steering wheel outright. Spain should fancy a response against Greece, but with the margins this fine, even “must-win” games have started to feel like traps.

Austria cling on, but the ground is shaking beneath them

Austria are still top, yet it’s a lead that feels more fragile with every round. The campaign opened with a gritty 2–1 win in Norway and a breathless 2–2 draw with Japan, but the momentum swung violently when Norway smashed Austria 4–0 — a result made uglier by an early red card — and suddenly the group turned into a five-way scrap.

The real storyline now is the pack closing in. Brazil recovered from their early loss in Spain-style fashion: they beat Norway, won in Austria, then got caught by Mexico — before responding with a sharp 3–1 away win in Norway. They arrive to Round 8 one point off the summit with a clear chance to take control.

Japan look the most unpredictable: they can dominate possession and still suffer, but back-to-back wins over Brazil (3–1) and Mexico (3–0) have kept them firmly in the hunt, even after that narrow 2–1 slip against Austria. Norway, meanwhile, have lurched between extremes — thumping Austria, then being handled by Brazil — and their margin for error is thin.

Round 8 sets up two pressure tests. Brazil vs Austria is a potential changing-of-the-guard night, while Norway vs Mexico is loaded with consequence: Mexico have been stubborn, but they need points fast to avoid being cut adrift before the final three matches.

Sweden and Malta have one hand on the tickets — now comes the head-to-head heat

With three rounds left, Group A has split cleanly into contenders and casualties — and it’s the Sweden–Malta tandem setting the pace. Both sit on 13 points after six, and the table says what the football has hinted for weeks: qualification is theirs to lose. Czech Republic (10 points from five) are the only side still within striking distance, but the margin for error is basically gone.

Sweden steadied themselves with a controlled 4–0 over Bulgaria last time out, a match that turned into an Isac Karlsson showcase — his brace set the tone before Sweden pulled clear. Malta, meanwhile, survived the round’s wildest ride, edging Germany 4–3 in a thriller powered by Michael Pellicano’s hat-trick and relentless finishing. That result didn’t just boost Malta’s points total — it underlined how hard they are to knock off even when games go chaotic.

Round 8 brings a proper separator: Sweden face Czech Republic in the group’s defining fixture. Sweden already have a slip-up on the record (that 2–1 loss in Prague), so this is both revenge and insurance. Down the bottom, Bulgaria are already on 0 points and out of the qualification race; Germany, stranded on 4, are in “must-win and then some” territory — but even perfection may not be enough if the leaders keep collecting.

Dutch pole position, but nobody’s shaking Norway — and the chase is suddenly alive

Group B is set up for a proper sprint finish. After five rounds, Netherlands and Norway are level on 10 points, with the Dutch narrowly ahead on goal difference (9–4 vs 12–8). Behind them, Japan and South Africa are tied on 4 — not out yet, but running out of runway with only three matches left.

The Netherlands earned their advantage the hard way last time out, producing a ruthless 2–0 win over Norway that was essentially settled in the first 13 minutes: Onno Roemeling struck early, Tomas Palsma doubled it, and Jef Tuin did the rest in goal to close the door. It was a timely reminder that this Dutch side can control games without needing chaos.

Japan, meanwhile, injected life into the race for second with a commanding 3–0 victory over South Africa. Gyo Goto supplied the cutting edge with a second-half brace after Muneyaki Takecare opened the scoring, and suddenly Japan have momentum they badly needed after a rough start.

Round 8 now carries real jeopardy. The headline is Japan vs Netherlands: Japan must win to keep their qualification hopes realistic, while the Dutch know another clean performance could put daylight between them and the pack. Norway vs South Africa is no less loaded — Norway can’t afford another slip, but South Africa need points immediately or they’ll be left with only arithmetic and regrets.

Argentina in cruise control, while India face the trapdoor week

Argentina have turned Group C into a one-team procession at the top: 15 points from six and a goal record of 14–6. Even their lone slip — the surprise defeat in Bangladesh — looks more like an isolated wobble than a trend, especially after they responded by swatting Algeria aside 4–1 with Alfonso Toledo running the show.

The real story is the fight for the second qualifying spot, and it’s suddenly uncomfortable for everyone involved. India sit second on 9 points with a game in hand, but the margin is thin: Belgium are on 7, Bangladesh on 5, and even Algeria on 4 still have a mathematical line of sight.

India’s form has been good enough to stay in the driving seat — wins over Belgium and Algeria stand out, with Mandeep Shah repeatedly decisive — but Round 8 carries genuine danger. Bangladesh already proved they can bloody Argentina’s nose, and their gritty 0–0 with Belgium showed a capacity to suffer and survive. If India let that become a scrap, the whole group compresses.

Belgium, meanwhile, can’t afford another afternoon of sterile dominance. They had two chances to land a statement — the 0–2 loss in India and the scoreless draw in Bangladesh — and now face an Algeria side that has competed hard but leaked goals. It’s a must-win for Belgium’s qualification bid; anything less, and they may be forced to chase perfection against India and Argentina in the final two rounds.

Nobody breaks away — and that’s turning every point into gold

With three rounds left, Group D still refuses to pick a clear favourite. Slovakia lead on 9 points, but only just, and the numbers tell the story: six games played, only one defeat, yet a draw-heavy record (2–3–1) that keeps the door wide open. Ireland are right behind on 8 with a game in hand, while Israel and Finland sit level on 7, leaving Switzerland (5) still close enough to believe.

The recent round added another twist. Israel’s 2–0 win over Slovakia didn’t just tighten the table — it exposed how little margin exists when you can’t turn pressure into goals. Slovakia still create chances, but even in defeat they managed 10 shots on target without scoring. At the other end, Finland again looked like a side built for long nights and small victories: they peppered Switzerland with 27 shots and still needed a late equaliser to salvage 1–1.

That brings us to Round 8, and it’s brutal for the contenders. Finland vs Ireland feels like a direct audition for the top two. Ireland’s spine — Karl Finerty in goal and the midfield engine led by Mark O’Doherty — has already shown it can shut down strong attacks, as Israel discovered in the 2–0 away win. But Finland’s pressing and volume shooting can overwhelm anyone if they find a finishing touch to match their dominance.

Meanwhile, Switzerland vs Slovakia is a pressure test for the leaders. Slovakia have already beaten the Swiss once (2–0), and Michal Maliarik has repeatedly kept them afloat with elite performances. Yet Switzerland have shown they can swing this group with one clean, disciplined display — just ask Ireland, who were punished 2–0 after a red card changed everything. In a group this tight, one mistake can decide who’s chasing, and who’s qualifying.

Turkey’s grip tightens, but the chase line is still moving

Turkey arrive at the business end of the group with a little breathing room — 13 points from six games — and, crucially, the look of a side that can win in more than one way. They’ve done it with control (1–0 over Canada), with efficiency (2–1 away at Peru), and with muscle when the pressure spiked (2–0 over Serbia last time out). Nihat Oncu has become the closer: two more goals against Serbia made it back-to-back match-winning contributions, while the spine around Tanridag and Demirkaya keeps Turkey steady even when games go wild.

Behind them, the pack is still bunched. Peru are second on 10, but Serbia’s 2–1 win over them proved how quickly momentum can flip. Peru still generate chances in waves, yet they’ve dropped points in three of the last four — including that breathless 3–3 in Albania. Serbia (8) are right there, and the draw-heavy middle means one clean win can redraw the entire chasing order.

Round 8 is a fork in the road for two different reasons. Peru vs Canada is about consolidation: Canada’s attack can explode (they hit Turkey for three), but their defence keeps inviting chaos. For Albania vs Serbia, it’s about survival — Albania are still winless, yet they’ve repeatedly shown they can drag better teams into uncomfortable scorelines. If Serbia want to keep Turkey in sight, this is the kind of game they simply can’t let slip.

Slovenia turn the group into a goal-fest — and nobody’s found the brake pedal

Slovenia have gone from front-runners to flat-out pace-setters. The numbers are ridiculous: 31 goals scored, just six conceded, and 16 points from six games. Even the one wobble — a surprise 2–2 in Estonia — still came with Slovenia two up through Andrej Novoselc, who keeps writing his own weekly headlines. The supporting cast is just as loud: Jaka Tomsek ran the show in the 5–3 shootout with Bolivia, while Amadej Daum has anchored a back line that rarely looks stretched for long.

Thailand remain the only side with a realistic line of sight on the summit at 12 points, but their route has been anything but smooth. They opened with an 8–0 demolition of Spain, only to be brought crashing back down by Bolivia’s 4–0 response. Since then, Thailand have steadied — wins over Estonia and Spain, then a statement 3–1 over Bolivia — with Niraphan Ekabut still the cutting edge when it matters.

Behind the top two, it’s survival mode. Bolivia have goals in them but not control, and Spain are still paying for those early disasters even after the managerial change and a brief uptick. Estonia have shown spirit — that draw with Slovenia proved it — yet the margins keep slipping.

Round 8 offers two very different pressures: Bolivia need points before the table hardens, while Thailand can’t afford anything that lets Slovenia cruise into Round 9 with daylight. In a group this wild, one “normal” result would feel like the biggest shock of all.

Brazil are untouchable — everyone else is fighting for scraps

Brazil have turned Group G into a one-team league. Six wins from six, a barely believable 34–1 goal difference, and the kind of supremacy that makes the rest of the table look like an afterthought. The warning shot came immediately with that 22–0 demolition of Lithuania, but Brazil have kept their foot down ever since — squeezing Romania 2–0, brushing Latvia aside 3–0, and finishing Uruguay off 4–0 after already beating them away. Even the “tight” one, a 1–0 in Lithuania, still felt inevitable once Deyvid Terra struck.

The real drama is the chase for second. Romania looked set to steady themselves after hammering Uruguay 4–1, only for Latvia to punch back with a crisp 2–1 win that reopened the race. Romania’s bright spot is clear: Andrei Georgescu, who exploded for a hat-trick against Uruguay and followed it with another treble in the 5–1 rout of Lithuania. Latvia, though, have built a stubborn identity — three draws in five, and when they do win, they make it count.

Lithuania have lived through extremes — from the Brazil nightmare to a shock 1–0 over Romania — while Uruguay still can’t turn possession into points, despite the defensive heroics of Flores Fraga Ceretta in patches.

Round 8 sets up a familiar question: can anyone slow Brazil down, and who blinks first in the scramble underneath?

Four-way squeeze at the top after France’s early sting fades

Seven rounds in, Group H has turned into a tightrope act. Portugal sit top, but only just — and that’s despite starting with a stumble, losing 3–2 in France before settling into a steadier rhythm. The key has been control: wins over England and Scotland, plus a gritty 1–0 against France, have kept them ahead even with a game in hand on most rivals.

Italy look the form side right now. After a cagey 0–0 with England and a frustrating defeat in Scotland, they’ve kicked into gear: a ruthless 5–2 away win in France and the statement 2–1 over England. Galtero Bianchi has been a pillar behind it, while Gavino Silvestri has provided the cutting edge in big moments.

England are dangerous but erratic — they’ve crushed France 3–0 and opened with a derby win, yet the red card in Italy and the late concession in Scotland have left them chasing. Scotland, meanwhile, have been chaos in the best way: a 5–1 hammering of France, a win over Italy, and a pair of late goals to rescue points.

France have goals in them, but conceding 18 has made every good moment feel temporary.

Round 8 now brings the pressure match-ups: Portugal’s grip is tested again, and Italy–Scotland feels like it could swing the entire pack.

Iceland’s grip loosens as Montenegro and Korea surge into contention

For a while, Iceland looked set to cruise — five wins from six was the pace, and Aron Ingi Hakonarson kept popping up with decisive moments. But Round 7 changed the tone. Rep. of Montenegro clipped the leaders 1–0, a result that tightened the entire group and reminded everyone how thin the margins are at the top.

Montenegro’s campaign has been built on control and bite: they opened by smashing South Korea (U21) 6–0, and even when the results dipped, their defensive base rarely wobbled. That head-to-head win over Iceland now gives them real leverage going into the run-in.

South Korea, meanwhile, have quietly turned into the group’s momentum team. Back-to-back 2–0 wins over Montenegro and Venezuela have pulled them right into the conversation, with Woo Keun Ryu setting the tempo and the front line finally converting pressure into points.

The United States of America are still stuck in the “nearly” zone — competitive in every match, but too often trading punches instead of landing the knockout. Venezuela have shown flashes (notably that 4–2 win in Korea), yet they’re still paying for too many swing moments in both boxes.

Round 8 now feels pivotal: Iceland can reassert control, or this turns into a full-blown three-way scrap.

Denmark keep rolling as Poland refuse to blink

Denmark have turned this section into a weekly demonstration of control: five played, five won, and even the tight games have still ended on their terms. They edged Poland early, shut down Australia in a low-margin away win, and then survived a furious shootout to beat Poland again 4–3 — the kind of result that breaks rivals.

Poland, though, are not going away. They’ve piled up goals when they’ve needed them and keep finding decisive contributions in big moments, with Boleslaw Wejman the headline act — a hat-trick in Denmark despite defeat, and another match-winning brace as Colombia were brushed aside. With 10 points already on the board, the chase is alive even if first place looks a long shot.

Croatia have been wild: hammered in the opener, then suddenly competitive, then clinical again — their 3–2 win over Australia suggests they’re still dangerous when the game opens up. Australia remain in the mix, but their margin for error is thin now.

At the bottom, Colombia are the group’s riddle: they produced the most outrageous scoreline of the campaign in Croatia, yet have since been squeezed out by more organised opponents. Round 8 feels like the moment where the table either settles… or catches fire again.

Moldova’s wall holds firm as Austria turn it into a shootout

Moldova have built the kind of campaign that makes everyone else look impatient: 13 points from 5, 16 scored, and just one goal conceded. They’ve beaten the contenders head-to-head, shut Russia out with authority, and even when Austria finally held them, it still only slowed the pace rather than changed the story.

The real spectacle has come from Austria. Their numbers are almost absurd — 23 goals in five games, with the 17-goal demolition of Greece doing most of the heavy lifting, but the underlying message is clear: they can score against anyone. More importantly, Round 7’s 4–1 win in Russia showed they’re not just padding stats; they’re capable of landing a statement away from home.

Behind them, the race for relevance is tight. Russia and Bosnia and Herzegovina are level on points and both have had their moments — Bosnia’s defensive base is real, while Russia can still explode in bursts — but neither has found consistency against the top two.

And then there’s Greece, for whom this group has been ruthless. The focus now is less about the table and more about surviving the next tests with some pride intact.

Round 8 sets up a fascinating contrast: Moldova’s control meeting Russia’s volatility, while Austria will be expected to keep the goal machine running.

Chile light up the scoreboards, Hungary keep their nerve

Hungary may not be the noisiest side in this section, but they’re the one everyone is chasing. A disciplined run has them top on 11 points, anchored by a defence that rarely gifts chances and a keeper in Tibor Bogner who keeps posting match-winning displays. The goalless draw with China last time out felt like a warning as much as a stumble: Hungary can be held, but they’re proving very hard to beat.

Chile, though, are turning Group L into a weekly thriller. With 19 goals scored already, they’ve looked capable of blowing teams away — yet their last two outings also summed up the risk: a 3–2 loss in China followed by a wild 3–3 draw with New Zealand. When Tristan Diaz De Loria is in rhythm, Chile can score in bursts; when they lose control, the back door stays wide open.

The mid-pack is where it gets tense. China have quietly steadied themselves after a rough start, hammering Mexico 5–2 and then holding Hungary to 0–0. Mexico are as unpredictable as anyone — good enough to beat Chile 4–2, shaky enough to be hit for five. New Zealand remain dangerous, especially when games turn chaotic, as Chile just learned.

Round 8 offers two telltale tests: Chile need points without turning it into another shootout, while China will try to prove their recent resilience travels.

Group A on a knife-edge: Lithuania lead, but nobody can breathe yet

Two draws in the last round kept Group A wide open — and it’s setting up a brutal three-match finish where one slip could decide the World Cup places. Lithuania remain top on 10 points, but their 2–2 with Australia felt like a warning as much as a result: they fired off 26 shots, yet still needed late composure — and a strong all-round display from Ipolitas Krioklys — just to avoid being punished by Chad Parsons’ second-half brace.

That stalemate kept Australia in striking distance on 8 points with a game in hand, while Finland also sit on 8 after grinding out a 1–1 with Argentina. Finland looked the more dangerous side (a flood of shots, and Jere Virtanen on the scoresheet), but Argentina’s route to survival is suddenly clear: keep games tight and let Silvestre Lynch steal points — the keeper was perfect again with a 10.0 rating.

China are lurking on 7 points with three matches left, making the upcoming clash with Lithuania a genuine pivot. With only the top two qualifying, nobody has clinched a ticket yet — and even Argentina, despite sitting last on 5, are still alive with two games remaining. The margins are that small.

USA are in — now the chase is brutal

Group B has already produced its first certainty: the United States are through. A perfect 6 wins from 6 has the reigning world power in this age group cruising on 18 points, and even their latest statement — a ruthless 5–1 dismantling of Moldova — came with that familiar efficiency: 11 shots on target, five goals, and Graham Rachal once again running the show with a hat-trick and man-of-the-match honours.

That leaves one ticket, and suddenly everyone else is looking over their shoulder. Despite being thrashed last time out, Moldova still sit second on 9 points — but the cushion is thin. Austria are only two back with a game in hand, and they’ve shown they can hurt anyone: they beat Moldova 1–0 earlier in the group and even pushed the USA in spells. South Africa, meanwhile, kept themselves alive by edging Uruguay 2–1, with early momentum (Nolan Boll inside eight minutes) and a decisive second-half strike from John Jacobs.

Round 8 turns the spotlight onto the desperate end of the table. Uruguay, winless and stuck on 1 point, are now effectively out of the race for the top two — anything less than a victory over Moldova ends even the mathematical argument. In the other match, South Africa–Austria feels like an elimination tie: the winner stays in the hunt, the loser risks watching Moldova escape for good.

Estonia crash the party as the giants wobble

With three rounds left, Group C has turned into a five-team argument — and round seven poured petrol on it. Estonia walked into the Netherlands and produced the definition of an away smash-and-grab: two goals from just three shots, a clean 2–0 win, and a leap to 8 points with a game in hand. Immo Kaldoja struck first, Joosep Eenmae finished it late, and suddenly Estonia are staring straight at the top two.

The ripple effect has been immediate. The Netherlands, former world champions, are still second on 10 points but look far less secure after back-to-back defeats — first by Czech republic and now by Estonia. The Czechs remain top on 12, yet even their lead feels fragile after a shock 2–1 home loss to Spain. That result dragged Spain off the canvas: from four defeats in six to a statement win powered by David Madere (penalty) and Ricardo Avellano, with Andres Godinez again setting the tone.

Behind the chaos sits Hungary on 6 points, inconsistent but dangerous — they’ve already hammered Czech republic 4–1 and have goals in them through Geza Kovacz. Round eight is therefore loaded: Estonia–Spain is a straight fight for relevance in the race, while Netherlands–Hungary has the feel of a must-win for both. No one is qualified yet, and no one is mathematically gone — but another stumble now could make the last two rounds a desperate scramble rather than a chase.

Croatia perfect, Chile chasing — and the last lifelines are fraying

Croatia have turned Group D into a weekly demonstration. Six games, six wins, 19 scored, just 3 conceded — and even Russia’s heavy possession in round seven couldn’t stop them. A disciplined 2–0 in Moscow, with Vlaho Pamic breaking it on the stroke of half-time and Alberto Dracar finishing the job, left Croatia on a pristine 18 points and on the verge of sealing qualification with three rounds left.

The real fight is underneath, where Chile have steadied after a wobble. Their 2–1 win away to Peru in round seven was ruthless: Peru struck early through Norino Huachaca, but Chile responded with a second-half double from the unstoppable Valerio Gomez after flooding the match with chances (22 shots). That result keeps Chile second on 9 points, but with only five matches played, they still control their own path.

Behind them, it’s survival football. Russia sit on 7 after being shut out again by Croatia, while Peru are on 6 and can’t afford any more wasted nights — especially with Slovakia coming up next. Slovakia remain bottom on 1 point after five matches and are staring at the numbers: three rounds left, but no margin for anything but wins.

Round eight brings the headline act: Chile vs Croatia. Chile have already been in a goal-fest with the group leaders (that wild 4–3 in January), and another big performance could be the moment they turn “best of the rest” into “qualified.” Meanwhile, Peru vs Slovakia reads like a final warning — one side clinging to the race, the other fighting to keep it alive at all.

England’s machine rolls on — but Poland refuse to blink

England (U19) are top and playing like it. After being stunned 3–0 by Germany on opening night, they’ve answered with a ruthless run: 17 goals scored, only 4 conceded, and a fresh reminder of their ceiling in the 6–0 demolition of Bosnia and Herzegovina (U19) last time out. Zacharias Spears ran the show again, hitting two more in a performance that underlined a simple truth: if England find rhythm early, the game is usually over by the hour mark.

But the group isn’t settled, because Poland just keep collecting points. They’re still unbeaten (3W, 2D) and their 0–0 in Germany in round seven was the definition of a mature away result — Janusz Dyner and the back line absorbed pressure, then shut the door completely. Poland sit second on 11, only two behind England with a game in hand, and they’ve already shown they can go toe-to-toe (that 1–1 draw in round three).

Germany, on 10, look like the wild card. They beat England heavily in round one, then watched points slip away in tight moments — including that stalemate with Poland. Still, their defensive base is strong, and Dirk Meyer has been outstanding even when the goals haven’t come. Algeria remain a threat at 6: they created plenty against England and had spells of control, but paid for one lapse and couldn’t find a finish.

Round eight is huge. Poland vs England has first place written all over it, while Germany vs Algeria feels like the match that decides whether this turns into a three-team scrap to the end — or a two-horse race with everyone else chasing shadows.

Iceland edge the Nordic tug-of-war as France try to barge back in

The group has tightened into a three-way squeeze, and round seven summed it up perfectly. Iceland held their nerve in a wild 3–2 win over Sweden, a result that pushed them top on 11 points and kept their campaign on track after a few missed chances earlier in the phase. K. Fannarson struck twice in eight minutes, and Iceland didn’t need volume — they needed precision, finishing with 8 shots, 8 on target in a ruthless display.

Sweden are still right there on 10, but they’ve become the group’s “nearly” team: good stretches, decent numbers, and just enough slip-ups to leave them chasing. David Karlsson did his part again with a brace, yet the margin for error is shrinking fast.

France sit third on 9 and finally look like themselves again. After the shocking 2–1 loss in Malta and the 4–1 collapse in Iceland, they’ve rebuilt with back-to-back wins — including a controlled 2–0 over Malta last time out, driven by goals from Lucas Gomes and Alexis Grall and another commanding outing from captain Maxime Goujon.

That sets up a delicate round eight. France can’t afford any more wasted evenings, while Sweden will feel pressure to respond immediately after losing the head-to-head in Reykjavik. And with Malta lurking on 6, one more upset could flip the whole table on its head heading into the final week.

Portugal keep the crown in sight as Latvia refuse to blink

Nothing has shaken Portugal yet. Unbeaten after six, top on 14 points, and still carrying the calm of a side that knows how to manage chaos — even when the game turns messy. Their 2–2 draw in Switzerland in round seven could have been a wobble at 2–0 down, but Sergio Pacos dragged them back with a second-half brace, while Eusebio Viana again ran the show. That resilience has kept the leaders clear, and it’s made the chasing pack’s margin for error microscopic.

Switzerland are still the obvious threat on 11, but the pattern is unmistakable: goals in bunches, and goals conceded in bunches. They’ve scored 15 — best in the group — yet the 10 allowed leaves every good spell feeling temporary. The 3–3 in Mexico and the late punch they landed against Ireland (4–3) showed their firepower, but also the soft underbelly.

And then there’s Latvia, quietly turning into the group’s pressure team. Three wins from five, 10 points, and back-to-back clean sheets against Ireland since mid-December, capped by a patient 1–0 on Tuesday where Kajs Lerga finally broke through late. They don’t overwhelm opponents — they squeeze them.

That’s why round eight feels pivotal: Latvia get the leaders next, knowing a win would flip the whole narrative, while Mexico and Ireland are scrapping simply to get unstuck at the bottom.

Romania’s wall holds — but the chase is suddenly crowded

Romania are still setting the standard: 13 points, just one goal conceded in six matches, and a calmness that turns tight games into routine work. After a goalless trip to Norway, they answered on Tuesday with a measured 2–0 over Colombia — Ferdinand Tecuta again the difference, twice, and again man of the match. When Romania score first, the rest of the evening tends to look inevitable.

Behind them, the group has started to twist. Norway were rolling after smashing Italy 3–0, only to be stopped cold by South Korea in round seven. Korea’s 2–0 win — with Jeon and Youj on the sheet — pulled them back into relevance and, just as importantly, reopened the door for everyone else.

Italy remain the wildcard on 10 points from five. They’ve shown both faces: the ruthless transition game that tore Colombia apart in a 4–2, and the fragile version that Norway punished. With Valentino Maddalena already capable of match-winning bursts, they don’t need long spells to swing a table — they need moments.

Round eight is all tension at the top: Romania get Italy with first place on the line, while Norway head to Colombia knowing another slip could turn a two-team chase into a three-team squeeze.

Brazil keep the pace — Albania keep the punch

Brazil are still unbeaten and still top, but the last two windows have carried a warning label. Denmark held them late in round three, and on Tuesday Albania proved they can trade blows with anyone: Besar Petrela struck twice in eight minutes after the break, only for Benjamin Chulapa to rescue Brazil with a ruthless late double. It finished 2–2, and the table now reads like a race Brazil control — but no longer cruise.

Albania’s story is simple and dangerous: they’re hard to break, and they’ve got a finisher in form. Petrela already decided the Denmark match with a brace and nearly decided Brazil too, while their wing-backs keep the box crowded and force opponents into low-percentage chances.

Denmark remain the group’s great “almost.” Four draws from five tells you they compete in every phase — Svend Abel and Jacob Christensen have repeatedly dragged them through games — but they’re still waiting for a performance that turns control into three points.

Round six feels decisive at both ends: Brazil get Denmark with a chance to seal the top spot, while Albania face Bangladesh knowing a win could lock in second — and leave Denmark needing a miracle.

the title race is level — and the margins are getting brutal

After seven rounds, Serbia and Belgium are locked together on 12 points, and it’s hard to argue either has blinked. Serbia’s response to the January slip in Israel has been ruthless: a 1–0 squeeze on Canada and a controlled 2–0 in Japan, with Zlatoje Desnica and Nebojsa Rapo again delivering the decisive moments.

Belgium arrive in no mood to yield ground either. They’ve rebounded from the Belgrade defeat by brushing aside Israel 3–0 and then putting Canada away 3–1, driven by a midfield that keeps finding runners and a front line that doesn’t need many invitations. Jean Leclercq has been the tone-setter — twice early against Israel, and constantly involved whenever Belgium turn pressure into goals.

Behind them, Canada have become the group’s swing factor. They’ve beaten Israel twice, pushed Serbia to a single-goal game, and still have both Japan and Serbia ahead — meaning one upset could reshape everything. Israel, meanwhile, have shown they can hurt elite opposition (that 2–1 over Serbia still matters), but their recent back-to-back defeats to Canada have left them with no room for error.

Round eight is all about pressure: Serbia must avoid another ambush from Israel, while Belgium know Japan’s confidence is fragile — and a fast start could open the door to a statement win.

Thailand are perfect — everyone else is fighting for oxygen

Thailand have turned this group into a one-team sprint: six wins from six, 18 points, and an 18–3 goal difference that barely hints at the chaos they’ve caused. The 10–0 demolition in Greece and the tight 1–0 over Bulgaria showed both extremes — and even their latest 2–1 win came with a warning, as Chalermpol Kulchatchai picked up a late injury. Whether he’s available or not, Thailand’s rhythm hasn’t dipped all campaign.

Behind them, it’s a scrap for second. Turkey sit on 8, but their recent wobble is real: a draw in India, a narrow loss to Thailand, then a wild 2–2 with Bulgaria that included a red card and a late collapse. Bulgaria are close on 7 with a clear identity — compact, low-risk, and happy to win ugly — yet they’ll rue how little they offered in the 1–0 defeat in Bangkok.

India remain the group’s unpredictable piece. They’ve leaked goals, but when the game opens up they can overwhelm anyone — just ask Greece after the 6–3 shootout. With Turkey first up and Bulgaria next, India have a direct path to jump into the qualifying places if they can pair that firepower with even a hint of control.

Round eight is pressure in two directions: Turkey must steady themselves against India’s pace, while Bulgaria know Greece’s new-found fight makes that “routine” win far less certain.

Slovenia keep rolling — Bolivia chase, Montenegro scrap for air

Slovenia have made perfection look routine: six wins from six, 19 goals scored, and the kind of control that travels — just ask New Zealand, who had 68% of the ball and still shipped five. The defining theme has been ruthless efficiency in big moments, and Klavdij Mlakar has been the headline act: four against Bolivia, a hat-trick pace-setter in Auckland, and another brace to settle Montenegro last time out.

The only side keeping even faint contact is Bolivia. They’re 4–0–1 and they don’t waste chances when games tilt their way: two clean wins over New Zealand, a 4–1 over Venezuela, and the key comeback strike in Montenegro driven by Leopoldo Pinto and the supply line around Agripino Zoreno and Bacilio Heredia. Their one stain is the 4–1 reality check in Slovenia — and that scoreline may matter later.

Rep. of Montenegro sit third but have lived on thin margins: two losses to Slovenia, a late 2–1 over New Zealand, and a 1–0 that finally stopped the bleeding against Venezuela. With Gago Vujovic still producing elite performances even in defeat, they’ll believe they can turn the upcoming trip to Bolivia into a points play — but they can’t afford another “almost.”

Round eight sets up two different kinds of pressure: New Zealand get a must-win chance against winless Venezuela, while Bolivia–Montenegro feels like a direct shootout for second place momentum.

Peru are already home — Bulgaria and Mexico head for a straight shootout

With just one matchday left in Group A, Peru have done the hard part: top spot is effectively secured and World Cup qualification is already guaranteed. The numbers are ruthless — 18 goals scored and only 4 conceded — and the latest statement, a 4–0 win in Spain, underlined how far clear they’ve been. Saturnin Renteria (hat-trick in that win) remains the headline act, with Gaston Paredes adding punch from deeper areas.

The drama is all in the chase for second. Bulgaria sit on 9 points, Mexico on 7, and it’s simple: Mexico’s trip to Peru is a must-win if they’re to have any real shot. Even then, they’ll need help — if Bulgaria take care of business, Mexico can’t catch them.

That’s where Spain come in, though only as spoilers: bottom on 1 point, they are mathematically eliminated from the top two. Still, Bulgaria know better than to flirt with danger after Peru’s earlier eight-goal demolition — because one slip, and Mexico could yet force the door open on the final day.

Latvia are in cruise control — the real heat is behind them

Latvia have turned Group B into a one-team procession. Unbeaten after six, they sit on 16 points with a commanding 14–4 goal record, and the latest 3–0 dismissal of Slovakia felt like another routine tick in a remarkably efficient campaign. With three rounds left and the top two qualifying, Latvia are already qualified — and they’ve earned it on both ends of the pitch, with Kriss Jankovskis repeatedly deciding games (two more goals in Round 7).

Behind them, the qualification race is tighter — but the picture is starting to sharpen. Poland hold second on 10 points, and they arrive at Round 8 with momentum after a controlled 3–1 win over Algeria, powered by Wojciech Nartowicz (two goals) and a typically authoritative display from captain Stefus Kondratowicz.

South Korea are the immediate threat, sitting on 5 points but with a game in hand — and, crucially, they’ve already shown they can hurt Poland, having beaten them 1–0 earlier. That makes their Round 8 meeting feel like a pivot point: Poland can edge toward safety, or Korea can turn the last two matchdays into a sprint.

At the other end, Algeria look increasingly cornered on 2 points; with only three rounds remaining, the gap to second is now steep enough that they are effectively out of the running unless a near-perfect finish arrives immediately.

Three-way deadlock, one slip away from chaos

Group C has reached the business end with a stunning reality at the top: Lithuania, USA and Argentina are all locked on 12 points. Lithuania lead only on goal difference after six played, but the margin is thin and the recent signals are mixed — a reminder that this section still has plenty of bite with three rounds remaining.

Lithuania’s campaign has had extremes: the opening-day 5–0 demolition of Argentina set the tone, and wins over USA and Belgium underlined their structure. Yet the last two matches have exposed vulnerability, with Argentina thumping them 3–0 before the Americans snatched a 1–0 away win in Round 7 despite Lithuania piling up 14 shots.

The USA arrive with the steadiest defensive numbers in the group (9 scored, 2 conceded) and that late strike from Landen Broder in Lithuania felt like a qualifier’s goal. Argentina, meanwhile, have rebuilt from that early collapse into a genuine force again — Nazareno Vaca has been central to the turnaround, and back-to-back wins over Lithuania and Belgium have dragged them right into the fight.

Round 8 now reads like a fork in the road. USA vs Argentina is a direct collision between two contenders; the winner takes a huge step toward qualification, while the loser risks being dragged into a final-week scramble. Lithuania, hosting India, have a clear job: bank three points and make the showdown elsewhere work in their favour.

At the bottom, India sit on 1 point with only three matches left and are out of contention for a top-two finish. Belgium, on 4 points from six, are also effectively finished — not because of effort, but because the leaders simply haven’t slowed down.

China’s late sting blows the race wide open

For weeks, Germany looked set to cruise through Group D on reputation and ruthlessness. Five wins from six had them clear at the top — until China landed a decisive punch in Round 7, stealing a 1–0 win in Germany thanks to Man Bi’s 88th-minute goal and a towering display from Shu Yen Hsiao (man of the match).

That result matters because the group now has a third contender with real leverage. Germany still lead on 15 points, but New Zealand are right behind on 13 after handling Sweden again, while China sit on 10 with a game in hand — and, crucially, with head-to-head momentum after toppling the leaders.

Round 8 offers Germany a clean chance to reset. A home match with Hungary — winless and shipping goals — is exactly the kind of fixture a frontrunner must turn into a statement. Yet Germany will know New Zealand have been relentless too: they’ve scored 15, can hurt teams early (as Hungary found out in a 4–1 opener), and they won’t care about the table if Round 9 becomes a direct shootout in Auckland.

China, meanwhile, face Sweden knowing three points could drag them to within touching distance of the top two before the brutal closing run: Hungary next, then New Zealand. Sweden and Hungary are both stuck on 1 point with only three matches left and are already eliminated from the top-two race — but they can still decide who goes through by who they frustrate.

Romania keep rolling as Colombia stay in touch

Romania have turned Group E into a weekly exercise in control. Unbeaten after six matches and sitting on 16 points, they’ve paired the tournament’s sharpest attack (17 goals) with a back line that has barely blinked (4 conceded). Even when the margins tightened — a 1–1 draw with Colombia in Round 6 — Romania still looked like the side dictating terms, with Gino Panc continuing a remarkable run of influence and end product.

Colombia remain the clear challenger on 11 points, built on balance rather than chaos: they’ve conceded just 5 all group and have found goals from multiple sources, most recently riding Marcos Marin in a 3–1 win over Malta. The problem is the gap — and the calendar. With only a few matches left, Colombia likely need perfection and a Romanian stumble to flip the order.

Behind them, it’s a fight for pride and momentum. Chile have been wildly unpredictable: thrashed early, steadier since, and still capable of scoring in bursts — but their 17 goals conceded tell the story of why points have been hard to bank. Australia and Malta are level on 3 points, both showing they can land a big punch (Malta’s 4–0 over Australia stands out) but struggling to sustain it.

Round 8 is a test of focus at both ends of the table. Colombia have a must-win assignment to keep pressure on first place, while Romania will expect to keep the machine humming — and, if they do, the group may be settled before the finale.

Portugal’s machine keeps winning while the chase stays messy

Portugal are doing this the hard way — and still making it look routine. Six played, unbeaten, 16 points, and a defensive record that’s bordering on unfair (2 conceded). The latest statement was a breathless 3–2 win over Israel, where Portugal showed they can trade punches when needed, not just suffocate games. Eliseu Estrada remains the face of their edge in the final third, while Nicolau Vacas has added a timely surge of goals to turn tight matches into points.

Behind them, it’s a crowded argument rather than a clear pursuit. Venezuela sit second on 8 points with a remarkably low-scoring profile (3–2 goal difference), built on shape, patience, and one-goal margins — including that 1–0 over Croatia and a narrow 0–1 loss to Portugal. Israel are also on 8 but far more chaotic: 9 scored, 10 conceded, big moments from Darren Maltz, and discipline issues that have already cost them in key spells.

Croatia are hovering within reach on 6 points, grinding out results like the late win over Japan, but they can’t afford many more blanks against the top three. And at the bottom, Japan have just 1 point despite flashes — Yasutake Tani keeps posting standout performances, yet the results keep slipping away.

Round 8 feels decisive for the middle pack: Croatia–Israel has “six-pointer” written all over it, while Venezuela’s visit to Japan is a test of whether their efficiency can keep them in the top-two conversation.

Slovenia’s goal storm meets Serbia’s shadow — and nobody else can keep up

There are runaway groups, and then there’s Group G. Slovenia have been utterly ruthless: 5 wins from 5, a jaw-dropping 36–1 goal difference, and a team that looks like it’s playing a different sport when it clicks. The early 18–0 demolition of England set the tone, but the real separator came in the heavyweight clash with Serbia — a 4–0 statement that turned a shared lead into a clear psychological edge. At the heart of it all is Klemen Marini, who has produced game-breaking bursts (including that four-goal avalanche against Serbia) while Dan Tekavec has been just as devastating in the big scorelines.

Serbia are still on 15 points after six matches and have scored 34 themselves — including an absurd 19–0 against Denmark — but that one collapse against Slovenia hangs over everything. When their 3-4-3 flows, it’s relentless: quick strikes, ruthless finishing, and a rotating cast of scorers led by the likes of Bogoljub Jaksic, Dmitar Labus and Zrinko Konstantinovic. The problem is simple: they’ve met the one side that can hit them back harder.

Further down, England have steadied after changing their manager — wins over Denmark and Iceland show signs of structure — but the damage from the opening disasters is beyond repair. Iceland at least have a pulse after beating Denmark, while Denmark’s lone win feels like a distant memory in a group that has been brutally top-heavy.

Round 8 carries two very different stories: Slovenia’s trip to Denmark looks like survival mode for the hosts, while Iceland–Serbia is a must for the chasers to keep the finale interesting.

Austria keep finding a way — and Italy are running out of margin

Austria have built their lead the hard way: not by blowing teams away every week, but by stacking results with a cold streak of professionalism. Six matches in, they’re still unbeaten (5W, 1D) and top on 16 points, even after being held by Canada. The pattern is familiar: narrow control, timely goals, and when needed, Dominik Waltle stepping forward — his brace in Greece and hat-trick against Bangladesh have been the difference in matches where Austria didn’t need to be spectacular, just decisive.

Italy have done plenty right — 14 goals in five games is the best attacking record in the group — but that 2–1 home loss to Austria has shifted the chase into overdrive. They still sit second on 12 points, yet the math is simple: with Austria already on 16, Italy can’t afford another stumble before the finale. Benedetto Giordano has led the way up front, while Giuseppe Rossi keeps dictating the tempo behind him, and the 4–0 win over Greece showed how quickly they can suffocate weaker opponents.

The wild card is Canada. They’re on 10 points, stubborn to break down, and their 0–0 in Austria proved they can frustrate anyone. That makes the upcoming clash with Italy a true swing match: Italy need the win for the title race, Canada need it to stay in the qualification picture.

At the bottom, Bangladesh have at least shown fight — even down to ten they landed two on Italy — while Greece finally got on the scoresheet, but remain stuck on 0 points and playing for pride.

Turkey’s perfect run is squeezing the life out of the chase

Turkey have turned Group I into a one-team pace-setting act. Five wins from five, 14 scored and only 3 conceded, and they’ve beaten every direct rival they’ve faced. The headline performer has been Yakup Ceben: a hat-trick in Prague, the opener against Uruguay, and another brace in Podgorica have made him the constant threat opponents can’t solve. Even when South Africa tested them early in the campaign, Turkey responded with control and ruthlessness — and the latest 3–0 in Johannesburg underlined how little they’re giving away.

Behind them, it’s chaos — and opportunity. Montenegro sit second on 8 points but haven’t been able to build momentum: a win over the “green table” Uruguay opener, a surprise loss in Czechia, and draws that kept the door open. Their 2–1 comeback win over the Czechs in the last round was vital, though, because it preserved their grip on the qualification spots heading into a brutal closing stretch.

South Africa remain the great riddle: they can score (9 goals), but the back line leaks (12 conceded), and two heavy defeats to Turkey have damaged confidence. Still, the 3–3 in Czechia showed their punch — Marius van Camp and Hamilton Hlongwane have delivered when games open up.

Czech republic are stuck in the middle on 5 points, often competitive but rarely clinical, while Uruguay have finally found points on the pitch after their no-show opener — yet they’re still playing catch-up with only 4 points and a modest 3 goals scored.

The next fixtures sharpen the stakes: Turkey can effectively lock the group by keeping their composure, while the chasing pack are one bad night away from being cut adrift.

Moldova refuse to blink as Ireland’s lead comes under pressure

The table says Ireland are in control — but the feel of Group J is far tighter. Ireland’s response to the slip in Bosnia has been emphatic: a red-card–aided demolition of Scotland (4–0) and a routine 3–0 against Russia have pushed them to 13 points with the best goal difference in the section (12–4). Steven MacMurrough remains the finisher of big moments, while the midfield has started to chip in too — Joe MacGovern and Adam O’Leary both found the net in the Glasgow rout.

Yet the real tension comes from below. Moldova are still unbeaten and sitting on 11 points with a game in hand — and they’ve done it with control rather than chaos: wins over Bosnia and Scotland, plus the 2–2 draw in Ireland where Constantin Mura struck twice to prove they can trade punches at the very top. Mircea Chirila has been the heartbeat, repeatedly turning matches with dominant displays.

Bosnia and Herzegovina are right there as well on 11, built on a back line that’s conceded only two goals in six matches. Robert Stepinac has delivered the decisive touches — including the early winner that handed Ireland their only defeat — but the 1–1 with Moldova last time out will feel like a missed chance.

With Scotland chasing pride and Russia still searching for a point, the next round is a fork in the road: Ireland can stretch the gap, but Moldova and Bosnia both have clear paths to turn the finale into a straight shootout.

France’s machine keeps humming, but the chase line won’t go away

France have looked a class apart for most of the campaign: unbeaten, free-scoring (15 goals) and miserly at the back (2 conceded). Even the one wobble — a surprise 1–1 in Estonia — was followed by a statement win, thumping Albania 4–1 before dismantling Thailand 5–0. Kevin Escoffier has been the tempo-setter in midfield and a constant end product threat, while Gurvan Bob keeps delivering decisive moments against top opposition.

And yet, Switzerland have made sure it stays interesting. They’ve quietly rebuilt momentum after losing 2–0 in France, taking points in tricky spots and squeezing out narrow wins — including a 1–0 over Estonia and a controlled 2–0 away in Albania. The draws (Estonia and Thailand) have prevented a full-blown title charge, but 11 points and a tight goals-against column means they’re still very much in the conversation.

Below them, the mid-table fight has turned into a scrap for pride and positioning. Thailand have been wildly uneven — capable of nicking results like the 2–1 over Albania, but also shipping heavy defeats to France. Albania’s season has followed a similar pattern: bright attacking spells, but too often punished when games stretch.

Now the pressure shifts to the headliner: Switzerland’s chance to prove the gap is real — or to drag France back into a proper finish.

Brazil edge the showdown, but the Netherlands refuse to blink

The top of the group has turned into a two-team duel in everything but name. Brazil have stayed unbeaten and finally landed the punch everyone was waiting for, taking the head-to-head with the 3–2 win over Netherlands. It was another reminder of the firepower running through this side: Prieto Kologeski dictating and finishing (two more goals in that thriller), Tamboril das Rocas providing the cutting edge, and Albertino Andrade pulling strings from deep. With 15 goals scored already, Brazil look built to win messy games as well as routs.

Still, the Netherlands have done everything to keep the race level on points. After holding Brazil to 0–0 early on, they’ve responded with ruthless control elsewhere — the 3–0 in Norway and the 4–0 against Bolivia were statements, and the recent 2–0 over Norway underlined their authority when pressure rises. Kees Janse has been immense between the posts and as a leader, while the balance of Meenderman and Tijn Kivit has given them goals and structure.

Behind them, the group has split. Norway have beaten the teams they “should”, but the heavy losses to the Netherlands and Brazil have exposed a ceiling — even with Dennis Lindstad and Marco Risberg posting big individual ratings. Bolivia have lurched between collapse and chaos: thrashed by the top two, then suddenly explosive in the 5–1 away win in Finland, with Hector Cano and Eugenio Vlabuena turning it into a rout.

Now it tightens again: Brazil can take a decisive step, while the Netherlands hunt any opening — and Norway/Bolivia scrap to stay relevant in the final stretch.