By:
lucca261
The now traditional Copa do Brasil round of 16 favoritism guide returns for its third edition, bringing the [b">favoritemeter[/b"> of the tournament’s 16 remaining contenders. Who will lift the trophy in T51?
A JOURNEY OF A THOUSAND MILES BEGINS WITH A SINGLE STEP
There are no underdogs this season as surprising as Poran and Gladbach in T49 or Fla Nordestino in T50 still alive. A sign that teams are improving — and that several favorites were knocked out early: there is no remaining team with an average OPS above 230.
DO YOU BELIEVE IN MIRACLES?
16. DYNAMO OSASCO (3rd, D16)
Opponent: Chronos
Average OPS (season): 221.8
Best finish: 7th round, T41 (vs. Cirandinha) and T42 (vs. Chocolate Sensual)
Most impressive result so far: 0–0 (5–4p) vs. Salvador (4th round)
In the fourth division, Dynamo Osasco could easily fly under the radar in T51, as the team is clearly focused on gaining rating in the lower leagues. That is, of course, if not for the best Copa do Brasil campaign in club history.
Before T51, Dynamo had only reached the 7th round twice, in T41 and T42 — and never beyond. This run, however, has been consistent, with wins over well-organized active teams such as Salvador and BCM. And the draw against Chronos might be the best possible scenario. In OPS terms, an upset is not out of the question. Imagine that: a Série D team playing the Challenge Cup.
15. GOLDEN EAGLE WARRIORS (7th, C7)
Opponent: Cajueiro
Average OPS (season): 224.9
Best finish: Round of 16, T39 (vs. Black Griffins), T42 (vs. Botafogo), T44 (vs. São Paulo), T46 (vs. Descolado) and T50 (vs. Touro)
Most impressive result so far: 3–1 vs. Vascão (7th round)
Fun fact: Golden Eagle is the team created in the T38–T39 generation that has reached the Round of 16 the most times — this will be their sixth appearance among the final 16. Another fun fact: they have never advanced past this stage.
In T51, the team managed by Stephen Curry and José Dourado arrives with an OPS similar to Cajueiro’s, but there is no comparison in current form — Golden Eagle is fighting near the bottom of the C7 table, while Cajueiro is the last unbeaten team in Brazilian Dugout. Could this finally be Golden’s first quarterfinal appearance? We don’t think so.
14. QUEBRA PERNA (2nd, C8)
Opponent: Campinas
Average OPS (season): 222.6
Best finish: Quarterfinals, T43 (vs. São Paulo)
Most impressive result so far: 2–1 vs. 3Kings (6th round)
“We know Léo Bertuol is one of the best managers in Brazilian Dugout — and he already reached the Copa do Brasil quarterfinals in T43.” Déjà vu. Two seasons ago, I wrote the exact same thing about Quebra Perna, and nothing has really changed. SCQP is still unstable in C8, yet continues to show up deep in the Copa do Brasil.
Back then, Quebra Perna was eliminated by eventual champion Sol, courtesy of a classic “former club curse” goal from Samir das Chagas, developed in SCQP’s academy. This time, the opponent is even tougher: Campinas, owner of the best OPS among the remaining 16 teams. But magic tends to happen on Tuesday afternoons at Askeland Stadium — and Campinas has a habit of suffering against Capelo’s sons.
13. CHRONOS (8th, C7)
Opponent: Dynamo Osasco
Average OPS (season): 224.3
Best finish: Round of 16, T40 (vs. Capelópolis)
Most impressive result so far: 1–0 vs. Udi (7th round)
Had they eliminated another team, Chronos might rank lower here. But knocking out Udi is something only a few clubs have managed: Botafogo, Flecha, São Paulo, Niterói, Capelópolis, Paulista and Touro. All of them have either played in the CB or are close to doing so.
So Chronos must be doing something right. The draw helped, since Dynamo Osasco is far from a juggernaut. And every day, Luis de Lourdes, the best U18 striker in the world, just keeps getting better. A perfect recipe for a potential upset finalist — especially considering the club’s cup pedigree: runner-up in the Copinha just week ago, and with a Round of 16 appearance back in T40, when they were still known as Carnielli.
12. RATO DA GAMA
Opponent: Desportivo Sol
Average OPS (season): 220.7
Best finish: 7th round, T45 (vs. Meia Boca Juniors)
Most impressive result so far: 1–0 vs. The Walking Dead (7th round)
Among the 16 teams still alive, Rato da Gama may have the weakest historical record in cup competitions, having reached the seventh round only once, in T45. But something seems to have clicked recently: T50 was outstanding, the team has had a long run with the DO-BR Belt recently, and they come into this stage not long removed from a six-game winning streak in the league — capped by a fantastic 1–0 win over TWD in the 7th round of the Cup, proving that Bahia is much better than Larley.
Sol is a tough opponent for the Round of 16 and is in good form both in league and cup play. Thiago Rato is betting on recent momentum and the “former club law”: midfielder Stjepovic, a star at São Ratuário, played for Sol just a few seasons ago.
11. PROJECT MAYHEM (1st, C7)
Opponent: Atlético Potiguar
Average OPS (season): 221.5
Best finish: Champion, T34 and T36
Most impressive result so far: 3–3 (5–3p) vs. Abelizado (7th round)
The only two-time champion still alive among the final 16, Project Mayhem no longer has any remnants of that legendary squad among its starters — Hernani Lecheva, Ilson Bigulino and Elias Kaufmann are now history.
Still, this might be Mayhem’s best moment in years. The dino reached the Round of 16 for the first time since T41, leads C7, and has posted emphatic wins over teams like Chronos and 3Kings. The lack of a reliable goalkeeper may hurt them, however, and Atlético Potiguar — even with below-average OPS — enters the matchup as favorite.
But who knows? The dinos have said it for years: Wolf Mayhem is a tactical mastermind of the Jurassic world.
DARK HORSES
10. ATLÉTICO POTIGUAR (7th, B1)
Opponent: Project Mayhem
Average OPS (season): 216.9
Best finish: Round of 16, T48 (vs. Real Molotov)
Most impressive result so far: 2–1 vs. Bangu (7th round)
Looking only at OPS, you might be wondering: how can Atlético Potiguar, with the lowest average among the remaining 16 teams, be considered a dark horse? Shouldn’t they be ranked lower? And the answer is simple: doubt Hannyel Potiguar at your own risk.
With five homegrown players in the starting lineup, the squad assembled by Hannyel closely resembles Na Canela’s teams — twice Copa semifinalists with even lower OPS. But can Vanderson Carena play the role of Bos? And does Hannyel command the Scrolls of Malta? Their B1 campaign has been solid so far, and Mayhem is no longer the team it was ten years ago. There is a real chance Potiguar enters this tie as favorite.
9. BASTARDOS INGLÓRIOS (6th, B1)
Opponent: Avanti Palestra!
Average OPS (season): 223.1
Best finish: 7th round, T45 (vs. Futleria)
Most impressive result so far: 1–0 vs. Piratas (7th round)
Increasingly established in Dugout’s top divisions, it was about time Bastardos Inglórios made a serious Copa run. And that moment has arrived, with wins over tough opponents like Piratas and Amnésia.
The main concern is that the season itself hasn’t been overly impressive, and midfield is clearly the weakest sector of an otherwise strong squad. The counterpoint: Sebastian Pajek has been unbeatable between the posts, and we’ve already seen Del Garcia take Flecha teams worse than this one to the final. The Round of 16 opponent is tricky, but Bastardos can compete with Avanti Palestra/Moços in OPS terms.
8. DOURADINA (4th, C7)
Opponent: Candal
Average OPS (season): 222.3
Best finish: Round of 16, T50 (vs. Guará)
Most impressive result so far: 4–1 vs. Atletic Rock (5th round)
A “team of the future” in Dugout terms, Douradina continues to live up to the nickname. This is their second consecutive Round of 16 appearance. And the script is nearly identical: the C7 team is facing a CB opponent as underdogs.
Unlike Guará in T50, which had a far superior OPS, Douradina can truly compete with Candal — in a matchup that could easily have taken place in C7 (had Douradina not bottled promotion for a couple of seasons). The squad is stronger than last season as well: players like Jef Tuin and Isailo Plavsa keep improving. The latter, a midfield star, has the unenviable task of stopping Gunalan. A tall order — but not impossible.
WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE
7. CANDAL (9th, CB)
Opponent: Douradina
Average OPS (season): 225.3
Best finish: 7th round, T45 (vs. Capelópolis) and T50 (vs. Touro)
Most impressive result so far: 1–0 vs. XAVIER VASCO (6th round)
For season after season, Candal kept falling just short in the Copa do Brasil. Since the creation of the Copa Giro, Douglas Candal hadn’t made it to the Round of 16.
That has now changed. In their very first season in the national elite, Candal built momentum and benefited from some friendly draws to finally debut among the final 16. The formula remains the same that took them near the top of the first division table: give the ball to Gunalan and trust the Uruguayan Candiota Severo in the back. The big question is whether the Turkish star will play — Gunalan always seems one yellow card away from suspension.
6. MÁXIMA (3rd, C5)
Opponent: Na Canela
Average OPS (season): 218.0
Best finish: Champion, T46
Most impressive result so far: 1–0 vs. Geny (7th round)
Máxima’s current form isn’t exactly spectacular. Their opponent is one of the toughest draws possible. But how can one doubt the first Capelo son to win the Copa do Brasil? Especially considering the coincidences between that title run and this season.
Yes, Delfim Monteiro and Djalovic are no longer at Máxima, but the scoreline against Geny in round 7 was identical to the T46 final: 1–0. With a younger squad than back then, Marcos Máxima will need to work miracles to secure a second title. And academy product Cosme Lessa will have to channel his inner Delfim.
5. AVANTI PALESTRA! (7th, CB)
Opponent: Bastardos Inglórios
Average OPS (season): 225.5
Best finish: Quarterfinals, T47 (vs. Big Fish)
Most impressive result so far: 3–0 vs. Taromagento (6th round)
It may not look like much compared to Botafogo, Piraloku or Udi City, but Avanti Palestra!/Moços’ OPS average of 225.5 is the third-best among the remaining 16 teams. And it’s not just about OPS: the former Moços side has competed toe-to-toe with much stronger CB teams so far in T51, with Henrique Matsuda (developed by the late Vikings) as their star man.
This will be Avanti’s third Round of 16 appearance, and the first under their new name. Bastardos Inglórios is a tricky opponent, but Celso Moços knows he is the favorite. Quietly, Moços should advance. And Big Fish won’t be there as the cup executioner this time. A possible favorite?
4. CAJUEIRO (1st, B2)
Opponent: Golden Eagle Warriors
Average OPS (season): 226.0
Best finish: 7th round, T45 (vs. Bit), T47 (vs. Santaço), T48 (vs. Piratas) and T50 (vs. Bento)
Most impressive result so far: 1–0 vs. Bento (7th round)
Selling Cajueiro as a future champion is the easiest thing in the world. Only one team in Brazil is still unbeaten this season. And if you don’t lose in the Copa do Brasil, you usually end up champion (as long as your goalkeeper isn’t Andrezinho Escalona, of course).
The truth is Cajueiro’s campaign has been flawless. The red-and-blue side boasts the best attack in B2 and the second-best defense. Veteran Gavrilo Dabetic, likely in his final season, has scored 13 goals in 12 league matches — all for the bargain price of 29k. The Round of 16 opponent helps. The OPS is the second-best among the final 16. So… why not Cajueiro?
TOP FAVORITES
3. DESPORTIVO SOL (2nd, B2)
Opponent: Rato da Gama
Average OPS (season): 224.7
Best finish: Champion, T49
Most impressive result so far: 1–1 (5–3p) vs. Niterói (7th round)
In Dugout, some teams simply know how to play certain competitions. Despite recent stumbles, nobody enjoys opening the draw page and discovering they’ll face Nivek United. And it may not be too early to say: Desportivo Sol seems to have learned how to play the Copa do Brasil.
The T49 champion has eliminated a lot of active sides in recent seasons and only fell in T50 to eventual champion Udi — at the 119th minute of extra time, no less. With a solid defense and several tactical cards up their sleeve, Sol enters as one of the favorites for a second title. One great argument: unlike Máxima and Mayhem, other champions with completely revamped squads, Sol has essentially kept its championship core — midfielders Musat and Pezzi, the attacking trio ED09-Joanitis-Das Chagas, and captain Cupic. The remaining question is whether Cima Maigregom can replicate the feats of Joaquim Dal’Molin — who has more Copa do Brasil titles than Bento.
2. CAMPINAS (11th, B2)
Opponent: Quebra Perna
Average OPS (season): 228.6
Best finish: Semifinals, T38 (vs. Peladeiros) / Champion*, T14, T19, T21 and T23
Most impressive result so far: 3–3 (4–3p) vs. Piraloku (5th round)
Getting there is the first step to becoming champion. And Campinas is back in the Round of 16 once again. This marks the semi-dino’s second consecutive appearance at this stage, after going 11 seasons without making the final 16 — though that pales in comparison to the 13 consecutive appearances in its “other life.”
The numbers don’t lie: Campinas has, by far, the highest OPS among the remaining 16 teams. And the form, which was poor early in the season, is clearly improving, highlighted by three wins in its last six games in B2.
While Na Canela faces Máxima — one of the few champions still alive — Campinas travels to Quebra Perna. That’s halfway to their first quarterfinal since T38. It’s time for Caio de Medeiros to finally show what he’s made of: Campinas is one of the favorites to win the Copa do Brasil T51.
1. NA CANELA (4th, CB)
Opponent: Máxima
Average OPS (season): 221.5
Best finish: Semifinals, T45 (vs. Nivek) and T48 (vs. Udi City)
Most impressive result so far: 3–2 vs. Descolado (5th round)
Na Canela has reached the Copa do Brasil semifinals twice, eliminated by Nivek United and Udi City — both in brutally close matches. Neither is still alive. Na Canela is one of the CB’s runner-ups. Na Canela practically forced Descolado into inactivity and faced one of the toughest paths in this edition.
Given all that, tell me one argument to not consider Na Canela the main favorite to lift the trophy? Yes, Diego Na Canela has developed a habit of stumbling at decisive stages in recent seasons. OPS is below the average of the remaining rivals, and the team has scored just six goals in 12 CB matches. But goalkeeper Andris Ozolins is nearly impenetrable, Diogo Grilo keeps delivering crucial goals, and Arthur Bronaut is the long-dreamed-of perfect midfielder. Also keep an eye on wing-midfielder Felipi Filho.
Our bet is that Na Canela’s ridiculous fanbase has a very real chance to celebrate an unprecedented final appearance. And then… who knows?