Romania are in — now the knife-fight is for second
Romania’s march has turned this group into a two-tier story. Seven matches in, the WC 26 champions have already secured qualification: even if they lose their final fixture in Prague, no one outside the top two can reach their 16-point haul. The only question left at the top is cosmetic — and perhaps psychological — as the leaders head to Czech Republic vs Romania on 24.02.2026.
Behind them, it’s chaos. China sit second on 9 points after seven games, but their defensive numbers (12 scored, 16 conceded) tell the truth: they’ve lived on the edge, from losing 4–0 in Bulgaria to that wild 4–4 with Serbia. Crucially, China are now spectators until Round 10, meaning the chasing pack can move past them this week.
That makes Bulgaria vs Serbia the pivotal fixture. Bulgaria (8 points) have finally found bite — beating China 4–0 and pushing Romania to the wire in a 1–0 — and they know one win puts second place in their own hands. Serbia, winless but stubborn (four draws), can’t be written off yet either: take three points in Sofia and they drag everyone into the mud for a last-day shootout.
Algeria are home and dry — everyone else is scrambling for the last ticket
Algeria have turned Group B into a two-speed race. Unbeaten after six, the WC 7 winners sit on 16 points with a miserly 10–2 goal record and have already qualified for the World Cup. Back-to-back wins over the United States — the defining 2–0 away shutout followed by another 2–0 in Round 8 — have left the rest fighting over a single remaining berth.
That scrap is properly alive. The United States are still second on 12 points (seven played), but the momentum has swung: two straight losses to Algeria and a damaging 0–2 defeat in Albania have taken the shine off their earlier scoring spree (16 goals so far). With the Americans idle until Round 10, the door is wide open this week.
Albania, champions as recently as WC 22, are best placed to kick it down. They’re on 8 points from six and host Canada (7 from seven) in a direct duel on 24.02.2026. Albania have shown they can hurt the heavyweights — that 2–0 over the USA was no fluke — but they’ve also bled points, including a wild 3–3 in Estonia.
Canada arrive knowing a win would flip the table on its head, while Estonia (2 points) look effectively out of reach of the top two and now face the worst possible assignment: an already-qualified Algeria with nothing to lose and plenty of pride to protect.
Four-way squeeze for two places as Australia play spoiler
Group C has become the most crowded of the lot: India lead on 13, but only three points separate first from fourth, with Bosnia and Herzegovina (11) narrowly ahead of a level pair in Latvia (10) and Croatia (10). With two rounds left, nobody in the top four can breathe easy — and nobody has qualified yet.
India have earned pole position the hard way. They’ve beaten Bosnia (1–0), taken points off them again (1–1), and responded to a mid-campaign wobble with a statement 2–0 win over Croatia in Round 8, with Aryaman Rai again decisive after earlier doubles against Croatia and Australia. But the leaders now meet a team with nothing to lose: Australia, bottom on one point and effectively eliminated, yet still capable of making it awkward — ask Croatia, held to 1–1 in the opener.
The other fixture is the real knife-edge. Croatia vs Latvia is a straight fight for position, and history is already written between them: Croatia nicked it 1–0 away in Round 4, while Latvia have shown they can land a punch on the frontrunners, beating India 3–1 and then 1–0.
With Bosnia still to come against Croatia in the finale, Round 9 feels like the night the margins disappear — win, and you’re staring at the World Cup; slip, and you’re praying for favours.
Italy lead, but the ten-point traffic jam is about to collide
Group D has turned into a proper squeeze. Italy sit top on 13, but behind them it’s a three-way tie on 10 points — Iceland, South Africa and Moldova — with only Thailand (2) cut adrift. Two rounds remain, and the order behind the leaders could flip in a single night.
Italy’s campaign has been anything but smooth. They opened with a surprise 1–1 in Thailand, then outgunned Iceland 3–2, only to be stunned by Moldova 2–0 in January. Since then, the Azzurri have steadied: a key 1–0 away win in Iceland and a gritty 2–1 in Moldova have put them back in control, with Antonio Ametrano repeatedly bailing them out and Lorenz Marino landing the decisive blows in tight games.
Now the spotlight swings to the chasers. South Africa vs Moldova is a straight fight between level rivals, and both arrive with evidence they can hurt anyone: South Africa’s 1–0 over Italy and emphatic 4–0 win in Thailand, Moldova’s statement 2–0 in Italy and late edge over Thailand. Meanwhile, Iceland vs Thailand looks like the safety net — but Group D has already shown it doesn’t hand out easy points, and Thailand have twice scored against the leaders.
With Italy vs South Africa looming in the finale and Moldova vs Iceland still to come, Round 9 feels less like a warm-up and more like the first half of a two-leg shootout.
Switzerland’s machine rolls on as the chase pack starts tripping over itself
Switzerland are out in front with 16 points from six, a ridiculous 20–1 goal record and the look of a side that can win without ever leaving second gear. The rest of Group E has been far messier: Bangladesh (10) and Slovakia (9) are jostling for position, England (8) are still within touching distance, and Finland (3) have at least stopped the bleeding with a timely upset.
The Swiss have mixed brutality with control. They opened with a clean 2–0 over Slovakia, then produced the group’s headline scoreline by routing Finland 11–0. Since then it’s been the same story in different packaging: a tense 1–1 in England followed by another 1–0 over both Bangladesh and Slovakia, and a comfortable 4–0 against Finland. Doug Kohli and Jason Walter have carried the cutting edge, while the defence has barely been asked to blink.
Behind them, momentum has swung wildly. Bangladesh beat England 1–0, then pushed Switzerland to the limit before finally being nicked 1–0 — and last time out they were stunned 2–1 by Finland. Slovakia, meanwhile, have shown they can hurt England (a thrilling 3–2) but also that they can be strangled by Switzerland’s late-game discipline.
That sets up a defining double act: Slovakia vs Bangladesh is a straight fight for control of the chase, while Switzerland vs England is England’s last real chance to turn their draw with the leaders into something more meaningful. With Bangladesh vs Switzerland waiting in Round 10, there’s still time — but not much margin.
Ireland stay top despite the injury hits, while everyone else keeps trading punches
Ireland’s recovery has been emphatic. After losing 3–1 in Hungary on opening night, they’ve ripped off five straight wins to sit first on 15 points, scoring freely (14) and finding ways to win ugly when needed. The problem now is availability: Padraig Wilson’s bad injury against Chile and Cearbhall Johnson’s knock in Uruguay have forced a reshuffle just as the group reaches the business end.
Behind them, it’s chaos in the best way. Bolivia (10) are second but hardly stable: brilliant in patches — including that early 2–0 in Uruguay and a 4–2 shootout with Hungary — then suddenly flat, losing to Ireland, Hungary and most recently 2–1 in Chile. Vladimir Daher has been their headline act (five goals in two matches alone), but his early injury in Santiago felt like the turning point of Round 8.
Chile (8) have quietly built belief: a strong draw with Uruguay, a grind-out 0–0 with Bolivia, then that crucial 2–1 over Bolivia to keep qualification in reach. Uruguay (7) have oscillated between fragile and ferocious — thrashed 7–2 by Ireland, then responding with a 3–0 over Chile — while Hungary (6) have beaten Ireland and Bolivia but still can’t string results together.
Round 9 sets the table. Hungary vs Uruguay is a straight eliminator vibe, while Ireland vs Chile decides whether the leaders can all but lock up first. Two days later, Bolivia vs Ireland could still flip the chase — if Bolivia rediscover their edge.
Group G remains on pause again this round, with the schedule leaving supporters in limbo after the previous matchday was also skipped. As the smallest group, they now have extra time for tension to build ahead of their final match.
The key thing now is simple: the sixth and final round arrives on Thursday, aligned with the rest of the competition. With everything compressed into that last set of games, there’s no easing back in — the group will go straight from silence to conclusion.
Expect a sharper edge when it returns: preparation replaces rhythm, and one matchday will decide what two would normally shape.
Poland’s pace-setters feel the heat, Russia lurk, and France are running out of road
Poland have led this group like a metronome: six played, five won, and only one goal conceded. They’ve throttled opponents with volume — the 3–0 over France came with 20 shots on target, then the 2–0 against Turkey exploded into 22 on target. Even with a bump on the road in Russia, the backbone remains Piotr Matuszewski in goal and a back line anchored by Udzinski and Dzierwa. With fixtures still to come, Poland’s job now is to finish the work, not just set the standard.
Russia are the only side keeping pace in the conversation. They’ve taken points off both Turkey (twice) and Poland, and they’ve found a late-game edge — Starikov’s 85’ winner versus Colombia, then Oskolkov’s early double to put France away. Andrei Konkin has been immense in tight moments, and that resilience has them sitting second with room to pounce.
Turkey’s problem is the same every week: control without the finishing touch. They’ve drawn three times, and that scoreless chess match in Colombia — cards flying, chances scarce — summed up a side that can suffocate but struggles to strike first against the top two.
Colombia have quietly made themselves awkward again. They’ve beaten France twice, pushed Poland to a one-goal game, and their midfield work (Avelino in particular) keeps them alive for a late push.
France, though, are on the cliff edge. Five losses in six, 13 conceded, and even their better nights (the 2–1 over Russia, the 2–3 loss in Colombia) have come with defensive leaks. With Poland next, there’s no time left for “promising defeats.”
Belgium take control, Scotland wobble, and the chase pack turns desperate
Belgium have moved from leaders to tone-setters. Four wins in seven has them top, and the statement was the 3–0 dismantling of Scotland — an early double (Lefebvre, Rombaut) and a late flourish from Jonas Verley, backed by a back line that barely blinked. Even in the two matches they didn’t win, the pattern held: possession heavy, chances created, and Bellamy Poncelet calm when momentum wobbled.
Scotland are still second, but the cushion is thinner than it looks. They’ve been solid in tight games — that 1–0 over Argentina and the gritty draw with Belgium — yet the 0–3 loss in Belgium exposed how quickly their structure can unravel when they concede first. With just five goals scored, they’re living on fine margins.
South Korea remain the group’s wild card. They’ve shown they can hit hard — 3–0 Israel, 2–1 Argentina — but the return fixtures have been punishing: Belgium beat them again, Israel shut them out, and Argentina stole a point. Still, with nine goals in seven, they’re one hot night away from flipping the table.
Israel have turned into spoilers with sharp timing. They’ve beaten Argentina, then followed it by blanking South Korea 2–0 — Ady Martin and Joram Bitler delivering, with Shmuel Moshaiov posting a perfect performance at the back.
Argentina are the danger team sitting in last. They’ve taken points off Belgium twice on the scoreboard line — a famous 2–1 win and a 0–0 draw — yet they’ve dropped too many must-haves elsewhere. With Scotland and Israel next, it’s now-or-never territory.
Montenegro refuse to blink — but chaos is brewing behind them
Rep. of Montenegro are top without ever really cutting loose. Six matches, zero defeats, and just one goal conceded tells the story: this is a side built to suffocate. Borislav Jevric has been the constant headline — man of the match in the smash-and-grab over Lithuania, then again as the clean sheets stacked up — and Montenegro’s knack for surviving long stretches without the ball has kept them in control of the group.
Peru look like the group’s most volatile contender. They opened by flattening Germany 3–0, then exploded again with a 4–1 away rout of Lithuania as Josias Abril hit a second-half hat-trick. And yet that same Peru were humiliated 7–0 in Germany, a collapse that flipped their goal difference into the red and dragged their campaign back into a scrap.
Germany’s ceiling is frightening — their floor is equally real. The 7–0 response to Peru was a statement of power, with Wolfgang Dahnke scoring four and Nicolas Guenther adding two, but Lithuania’s 2–0 win over them showed how quickly the momentum can turn when the finishing dries up.
Lithuania are hanging in with timely punches, while New Zealand remain the masters of the draw — five stalemates, one goal scored — and that means the final stretch is brutally simple: someone has to start winning, or Montenegro will cruise past the wreckage.
Denmark steady the ship, while Slovenia and Venezuela turn the run-in into a knife-fight
Denmark have weathered the storms and kept the lead. They were beaten early by Spain, then answered with a run of clean, clinical wins — including a statement 2–0 over Spain and a gritty 1–0 away win in Slovenia. Ole Hansen has been the metronome and the match-winner more than once, and with 15 points from seven Denmark now control the tempo of the group.
Spain’s early punch has faded into frustration. The opening win over Denmark looked like a turning point, but the 0–0 in Slovenia, the 0–1 home defeat to Slovenia, and a late wobble into a 1–1 draw with Greece has left them chasing rather than hunting. They still have the structure — that back five has kept things tight — but the margins are shrinking fast.
Slovenia are the disruptors. They thumped Greece 3–0, then pulled off the key away win in Spain before narrowly slipping to Denmark. With games in hand and 10 points from six, they’re perfectly placed to pounce if Denmark blink.
Venezuela remain the wild card. They opened with a ruthless demolition of Greece, but Denmark shut them out and Spain punished them too. Then came the reminder of their ceiling — a 3–010 goals scored, they’re the group’s biggest swing factor heading into a defining week.
Next up: Venezuela–Spain feels like a direct shootout for the chase pack, while Greece–Slovenia is a trap fixture for anyone who thinks the bottom side can’t bite.
Positions: 1st - Brazil (12 points), 2nd - Austria (10 points), 3rd - Japan (8 points), 4th - Mexico (8 points), 5th - Norway (7 points)
Japan catch fire, Brazil cling to top, and the run-in turns into a three-way brawl
Brazil are leading, but it’s been anything but serene. They opened with a ruthless 2–0 win over Norway and stole a tight 1–0 in Austria, yet the aura cracked when Mexico hit them for three and Japan outplayed them 3–1. Still, Brazil responded like a front-runner should: a late surge to beat Austria 2–1 has them on 12 points from six, with Wanderson Aviz and Capone Andinho repeatedly deciding moments.
Japan are the form side — and the most dangerous. After early draws, they’ve turned the group into a shooting gallery: 3–1 against Brazil and 3–0 away to Mexico (helped by an early red card) have pushed them into striking range. Hikozaemon Kajiwara and Nobuyoshi Kamon are delivering end product, while Yuifum Yamakawa keeps posting elite ratings behind them.
Austria have lived on the edge. They nicked Norway late on Matchday 1, twice traded punches with Japan, beat Mexico 1–0, then suffered a disastrous 0–4 collapse to Norway after an early sending-off. They’re still second on 10 points, but the margin for error is gone.
Mexico and Norway are spoilers with teeth. Mexico’s smash-and-grab 3–1 in Brazil proved their ceiling, while Norway’s big statement was the 4–0 in Austria — only to be cooled by Brazil and then outpaced again by Mexico.
Next up: Mexico–Brazil is a direct punch at the summit, while Japan–Norway feels like Japan’s chance to load even more pressure before the Brazil–Japan showdown.
Sweden may sit top of Group A on 16 points, but this section is still alive. Last round’s 4–2 win over the Czech Republic gave the leaders breathing room, yet the chasing pack have games in hand: Malta (13 points, 6 played) and the Czech Republic (10 points, 6 played) can still turn the run-in into a sprint.
The spotlight falls on Malta vs Sweden. Malta’s campaign has been fuelled by daring, attacking football — the 4–3 win over Germany and the earlier 4–1 away victory in Germany underlined that they can hurt opponents who blink. A win here would pull Malta level on points with Sweden, and keep destiny firmly in Maltese hands heading into the finale against Bulgaria.
Sweden, meanwhile, know that avoiding defeat would be a huge step towards qualification, especially with their main rivals still needing to prove consistency under pressure.
In the other fixture, the Czech Republic vs Bulgaria looks like a must-win for the Czechs if they want to keep the top two within reach.
At the foot of the table, the situation is already settled: Bulgaria (1 point) and Germany (5 points) are mathematically eliminated from finishing in the top two with three rounds left.
Group B has been an odd one for the calendar — no match last round, none this round — but the table has already done the hard work. With two teams qualifying and only one matchday remaining, Netherlands and Norway have both secured their places at the U21 World Cup.
A classic squeeze play as India chase, Belgium defend, Argentina pace the race
Three rounds left and Group C still has a genuine edge. Argentina lead on 15 points from six, but the fight for the second World Cup ticket is tense: Belgium sit on 10, India are right behind on 9, and Bangladesh remain in the mix with 8 from seven.
The headline act is India vs Belgium, a direct shootout between the current top-two holder and the closest pursuer. India already proved they can hurt Belgium, winning 2–0 away in Round 4, yet their momentum took a hit last time out with a bruising 4–1 loss to Bangladesh despite enjoying 71% possession. Belgium arrive steadier, fresh from a ruthless 4–1 win over Algeria where they hit nine shots on target from nine.
In the other match, Argentina vs Bangladesh has the feel of a trap fixture for the leaders. Bangladesh have already sprung one shock this campaign, beating Argentina 2–1 in Round 4 while dominating the ball. Argentina responded in style by swatting Algeria 4–1 in Round 7, with Alfonso Toledo starring in a three-goal show.
At the bottom, Algeria (4 points, 7 played) are hanging by a thread and effectively need a perfect finish — plus help elsewhere — to reach the top two.
Nobody’s safe, nobody’s gone — and Finland’s narrow lead is living dangerously
With three rounds left, Group D is the definition of a traffic jam. Finland top the pile with 10 points from seven, but Slovakia are only one back on 9, and Ireland and Switzerland sit level on 8 (both with a game in hand). Even Israel, fifth on 7, are still within touching distance. In other words: no one has qualified yet, and no one is eliminated.
The round’s centerpiece is Ireland vs Switzerland, a direct duel between the co-chasers. Ireland’s campaign has swung wildly — a 3–1 win over Finland was followed by a damaging 2–0 loss in Switzerland, then steadied by a clean 2–0 win over Israel. Switzerland, meanwhile, have come alive after a rocky start: they’ve taken four points from their last two (1–1 in Finland, then 2–1 over Slovakia) with Andrea D’Addamio repeatedly bailing them out in goal.
Across the group, Israel vs Finland is quietly huge. Finland’s points base is built on draws — four already — but they arrive buoyed by a statement 3–2 win over Ireland powered by Lauri Laitinen’s brace. Israel, though, have shown they can land punches: they thumped Switzerland 4–0 and stunned Slovakia 2–0. If Finland slip here, the top spot could change hands in a single night.
Peru still lead, but Turkey have turned it into a two-horse sprint
The table says Peru (13) are top, but the story is that Turkey (13) are right alongside them with a game in hand — and momentum that’s getting louder by the week. Peru’s attack has been the group’s headline act (14 goals), yet the cracks have shown at key moments: the wild 3–3 in Albania and the costly 2–1 defeat in Serbia kept the door open for their closest rivals.
Turkey have kicked it down. After that early slip in Serbia, they’ve answered with a ruthless run: 2–1 away at Peru, a tight 1–0 over Albania, and a statement 2–0 against Serbia powered by captain Nihat Oncu (two goals, man of the match). They’re not always pretty, but they’re relentlessly efficient — and they’ve learned how to win when games turn tense.
Now comes the defining night: Turkey vs Peru is effectively a final for first place. Peru can’t afford another loose spell at the back, even with Quentin Huaringa posting elite ratings and Rodas/Andrade/Fasabi keeping the supply of goals flowing.
Elsewhere, Canada vs Albania is loaded with pressure. Canada finally found a clean, clinical win in Albania, but they’ve also lived dangerously in shootouts — especially the 3–3 with Turkey after a Keven MacGregg hat-trick. Albania, revived by a 3–1 win over Serbia, know another big performance could drag them right back into the conversation.
Slovenia’s goal machine faces its last real hurdle
Slovenia (16) have turned Group F into a highlight reel: 31 goals scored, unbeaten, and seemingly immune to momentum swings. Even the one wobble — that surprise 2–2 in Estonia — only served as a reminder that this side can be rattled, not removed. When they click, it gets brutal fast: Spain found that out the hard way in the 16–1 demolition, with Andrej Novoselc, Jaka Tomsek and company posting video-game numbers.
But if there’s one opponent built to test them, it’s Thailand (13). They’ve been the group’s second force all campaign, mixing blowouts (the opening 8–0 against Spain) with proper resilience — and the beating they took in Bolivia only sharpened the edge. Niraphan Ekabut remains the headline act, still delivering decisive moments even when Thailand aren’t dominating possession, while keeper Burachat Rungsamaithong has produced multiple high-rating performances in tighter matches.
That’s what makes Slovenia vs Thailand feel like the last meaningful checkpoint before the finish. Slovenia’s efficiency has been terrifying (they don’t need the ball to score), but Thailand’s pace and directness can punish any lapse — exactly the kind Estonia exploited when they dragged the leaders into a scrap.
In the other match, Bolivia (9) travel to Estonia knowing they can still make noise. Bolivia have already shown they can hurt top sides — the 4–0 over Thailand and a gritty 1–0 over Spain — but their defensive record says they’ll need control, not chaos, if they want to keep their final-day hopes alive.
Brazil (21) have turned perfection into routine: seven played, seven won, and an absurd 36–2 goal difference that keeps rewriting the scale of this group. The opening 22–0 demolition of Lithuania set the tone, but the scarier part is how they’ve won in different ways since — suffocating control against Romania (2–0), ruthless transitions in Latvia (3–0), and a tight, late squeeze when Latvia finally landed a punch (2–1). With Uelder de Paiva pulling strings and Venancio Ligeirinho still the headline finisher, Brazil arrive every week looking less like leaders and more like an inevitability.
Behind them, the race for second has flipped from cautious to chaotic. Romania (7) looked stranded after that shock 0–1 loss in Lithuania, but the response was emphatic: a 4–1 dismantling of Uruguay and a 5–1 rout of Lithuania, driven by the red-hot Andrei Georgescu and a back line that suddenly started defending on the front foot. The problem? Their revival runs straight into the group’s immovable object.
Latvia (6) are the spoiler-in-chief — three draws, a priceless 2–1 win over Romania, and the rare distinction of actually making Brazil sweat in the 2–1 loss. Keeper Luka Svarcs has been heroic, while Rihards Mals and Spodris Ozolins keep them competitive even when they concede territory.
That’s why the next round has bite on both fronts: Romania get the glamour test against Brazil, while Latvia face Uruguay (3), who remain winless but stubborn — already holding Lithuania twice at 0–0. If Romania can’t take points off Brazil, Latvia’s path to second suddenly looks very real.
Positions: 1st - Italy (11 points), 2nd - England (11 points), 3rd - Portugal (10 points), 4th - Scotland (8 points), 5th - France (4 points)
Italy and England level — Portugal one punch away
The top of Group H has turned into a three-team squeeze, and Italy (11) are clinging to first more through nerve than fireworks. They’ve been hard to shift all campaign — the 0–0 with England was an arm-wrestle, but the response to the 2–1 slip at Scotland was pure edge: a ruthless 5–2 away win in France and a statement 2–1 over Scotland despite an early injury. With Galtero Bianchi repeatedly posting elite ratings and Pasquale Cappalletto suddenly scoring in bursts, the Azzurrini look built for tight finishes — and they’ll need that steel again immediately.
England (11) have taken a different route: compact, controlled, and increasingly pragmatic. They opened with a clean 2–0 over Scotland, then survived in Italy with Reginald Alfredson sent off, before wobbling in Portugal (1–2) and letting Scotland steal a late 1–1. Since then, though, they’ve steadied: a crisp 3–0 against France and a cagey but valuable 1–0 over Portugal, driven by the spine of Braeden Wallace, Slade Seymour, and Cedric Brasher.
That leaves Portugal (10) as the lurking threat. They’ve already beaten England once, squeezed France 1–0, and matched Italy in Turin (1–1). If Marcelo Branco and Olavo Chaves keep setting the tempo, Portugal have the tools to flip the table — especially with Italy next.
At the bottom, France (4) have been punished for defensive lapses, while Scotland (8) remain the wild card: explosive at home, vulnerable to late swings, and still capable of dragging the contenders into a scrap.
Group I has hit the point where every slip is punished immediately: Rep. of Montenegro (13) and Iceland (13) are locked together, but they’ve arrived there by wildly different routes. Montenegro opened the section with a statement 6–0 over South Korea, then steadied after a red-carded loss in Iceland by finding their edge again — the 1–0 over Venezuela was pure control, and the 7–0 demolition of the USA was a reminder of just how quickly they can turn matches into routs. Radun Miladinovic has been the heartbeat (and the headline), while Ljubisa Markovic and Svetislav Ivanovic have ridden the momentum in those big nights.
Iceland, meanwhile, have been all about narrow margins and nerve. They struck early to beat Montenegro 1–0, edged South Korea away with Aron Ingi Hakonarson doing the damage, and then stole a thrilling 3–2 in Venezuela. Even their 1–1 with South Korea felt like a test passed rather than points dropped, with Bjarki Bjarnason repeatedly putting up match-winning-level performances.
South Korea (10) are the spoiler nobody wants to see on the schedule: they’ve beaten both the USA and Montenegro, and they’re now close enough to turn the last week into chaos. For the Americans (5), it’s been a campaign of “almost” — good early draws, but the 7–0 collapse in Montenegro left scars that need an immediate response. Venezuela (4) have shown they can score in bursts, but their discipline and finishing have deserted them at the worst moments.
With the next fixtures arriving back-to-back, this group is set up for a final swing: one top-side wobble, and the whole table flips.
Denmark stay spotless, Poland chase, and the middle turns feral
Denmark have built the kind of lead that breaks groups. Six played, no defeats, and they’ve shown they can win in different ways: pinched away points in Poland early, squeezed past Australia, then outlasted Poland again in a wild 4–3 that underlined their nerve. Noah Eskildsen keeps popping up with goals at the right time, while Jesper Petersen has owned the big moments — the hat-trick against Croatia still feels like the night the group tilted. Even when Croatia finally slowed them down with a 1–1, Denmark never looked rattled.
The chase belongs to Poland, and it’s a chase with teeth. They’ve piled up goals, hammered Australia 3–0, and twice leaned on Boleslaw Wejman to drag them through chaos — including a hat-trick in that Denmark thriller. The problem is simple: Denmark keep answering every question. Poland now need perfection, and probably help, if they want first place instead of a scrap to simply stay safe in second.
Behind them, the group has been pure turbulence. Croatia were humiliated 0–9 on opening day, yet they’ve clawed back into relevance with sharper finishing and a genuine edge — beating Colombia 3–0, then edging Australia 3–2, then taking a point off Denmark. Australia have been brave but blunt: they can defend, they can fight, but goals arrive in bursts and disappear just as quickly. And Colombia? That opening-day nine-goal eruption looks like it happened in another season — since then it’s been a grind, with Juan Valencia still the threat but results slipping away.
With the final games coming fast, Denmark are close to turning this into a procession — but Poland-Croatia and Australia-Poland have enough bite to leave bruises everywhere.
Moldova’s machine, Austria’s fireworks, and one last knife-edge fight behind them
Moldova have turned this group into a weekly routine: win the match, smother the opponent, move on. Six played, no defeats, and an absurd 18–1 goal difference that tells you everything about their balance. They’ve beaten Bosnia twice, shut out Russia twice, and even when Austria finally held them to a 1–1, Moldova still looked like the side with the calmer pulse. Steopa Cernalevscaia has been the headline-maker up front, while Florian Martin and the back line have made clean sheets feel inevitable.
The only team consistently living in Moldova’s orbit is Austria — and what an orbit it is. Four draws from six would normally scream “cautious,” but Austria have somehow paired that with 25 goals scored. The story is obvious: the 17–0 demolition job lit up the numbers, the 4–1 win in Russia proved they can travel, and yet the dropped points have kept the door ajar for everyone else. Andreas Moshammer has been a one-man avalanche in big games, and when Austria click, they don’t just win — they flood teams.
That leaves the scrap for the remaining places, and it’s genuinely tight. Bosnia and Herzegovina have mixed brutality with frustration: the 12–0 rout of Greece showed their ceiling, but two scoreless games against Russia and two losses to Moldova have kept them hovering. Russia started with a hammering of Greece and later added a 10–1 scoreline, yet they’ve been stung whenever the opponent can defend properly — 0–0 with Austria, then blanked twice by Moldova. With points level in the middle, those head-to-heads in the final week suddenly feel like auditions.
The table may show separation at the top, but the closing matches are still loaded: Moldova can crown it, Austria can still make it chaotic, and Bosnia-Russia is the kind of fixture that decides who gets remembered.
Chile’s chaos crown wobbling as Hungary and New Zealand refuse to blink
Chile sit top, but it’s been anything but comfortable. After a statement 5–0 over China, they’ve turned the group into a weekly thriller: edged by Mexico in a six-goal shootout, then dragged into a 3–3 with New Zealand, and finally punished again by China in a 3–2 upset. The upside is obvious — 21 goals is a leader’s output — and when Tristán Díaz De Loria is in full flight, Chile look unstoppable. The downside is just as loud: the back door keeps getting kicked in, and that’s why first place still feels temporary.
Hungary have built the opposite profile: controlled, efficient, and stubborn. They’ve already beaten Mexico, handled China comfortably, and then delivered a ruthless 4–0 in Mexico despite seeing a red themselves. The goalless draw with China was a reminder that not every lock opens easily, but with Tibor Bogner setting the tone and Alex Simon repeatedly providing early strikes, Hungary look like the side best equipped for a tight finish.
And don’t ignore New Zealand. They’ve scored in bunches, taken points off both heavyweights, and just squeezed China again — a gritty 1–0 built on Dave Symonds delivering early and Derryk East doing everything else. With Mexico lurking and China suddenly dangerous, the final two rounds feel like a three-way street fight beneath a nervous leader.
Lithuania punch their ticket as Australia edge closer
With three rounds to go, Lithuania have done the hard part: they’re now mathematically qualified after a clinical 2–0 win over China. A side whose best-ever finish is only a quarterfinal (WC 28) is suddenly carrying real authority in this campaign, and the clean sheet mattered as much as the points in a group where margins keep shifting.
Behind them, Australia took a huge step toward the second World Cup place by grinding out a 1–0 over Argentina. The defending giants of this field in terms of pedigree (former world champions) are now out of contention — even a final-day win can’t lift them into the top two. Australia, by contrast, are one result away from turning a modest historical ceiling into a qualifying finish.
That leaves a very clean endgame: Finland are the only team still capable of catching Australia, with a possible 14-point finish if they win out. China are eliminated too, capped below Australia’s current total. Round nine shapes the script perfectly: Finland meet already-qualified Lithuania, while China face Australia in a match that can all but lock the door.
USA cruise on, while Moldova and Austria square up for the last ticket
United States of America have turned Group B into a formality: six wins from six, a +11 goal difference, and their World Cup place already sealed. They’ve beaten both direct rivals, and even the upcoming meetings with South Africa and Uruguay can’t change the top-two picture for them.
The real drama sits beneath. Moldova steadied themselves after the heavy 5–1 loss to the USA by dismantling Uruguay3–0, with Maxim Timbur again at the heart of it. That win keeps Moldova on 12 points — but they’ve now played one game more than Austria, who remain the main threat after a composed 2–0 away win in South Africa.
That leaves a clean, high-stakes finish: Austria can still reach 16 points with two wins, while Moldova’s ceiling is 18 but with less room for error. Uruguay, stuck on one point, are already mathematically eliminated.
Round nine offers a potential turning point. If Austria take care of Uruguay as expected, the decisive shootout shifts to the final day: Moldova vs Austria, with a World Cup spot riding on it — unless results elsewhere make it moot.
Spain surge back into contention as the leaders brace for a defining double-header
Group C has flipped from early certainty into a three-way squeeze. Netherlands still lead on 13 points, but the margin is thin after a surprise 0–2 home defeat to Estonia in Round 7. They responded emphatically in Round 8, hammering Hungary (U19) 4–1 with Albert Van Dam starring and Gerlof Versteeg again setting the tempo from the back.
Czech republic sit one point back with a game in hand (12 from 6), yet their campaign has been jolted by turbulence: a heavy 4–1 loss in Hungary and then a damaging home slip to Spain. To make matters worse, their talisman Roman Ruzicka suffered a bad injury in the win over the Dutch and is expected to be out for the season — a brutal blow with the finish line in sight.
Spain, written off after shipping five on opening day in the Netherlands, have suddenly found a route back. They’ve beaten Czech republic away and followed it up by taking down Estonia 3–1, lifting themselves to 7 points with their destiny no longer entirely out of reach.
Round 9 is a pressure-cooker: Czech republic vs Netherlands could decide who controls the group, while Hungary vs Estonia is a direct fight to stay alive. No one has clinched qualification yet — but another setback for any contender could be fatal.
Croatia cruise, while Chile’s goal-fest turns into a scramble for second
Croatia have turned Group D into a procession. Unbeaten after seven matches (19 points), they’ve paired control with punch — 20 goals scored and just 4 conceded — and even Chile’s firepower couldn’t knock them off course in the 1–1 draw last time out. With Alberto Dracar consistently setting the standard and Ivica Asic delivering big-game performances, Croatia look safely home.
The real story is the battle behind them. Chile sit second on 10 points and boast an outrageous 18 goals from six games — boosted by that jaw-dropping 10–0 demolition of Slovakia where Valerio Gomez ran riot. But they’ve also shown vulnerability: a 2–0 loss in Russia and a frantic 4–3 defeat in Croatia mean the cushion is thinner than it looks.
Russia and Peru are level on 7 points, both still with a route to second if Chile stumble. Peru have made a habit of tight games — including a key 2–1 win over Russia — while Russia’s inconsistency has kept them chasing.
Round 9 is decisive: Chile can’t afford slips against Slovakia, and Russia vs Peru is effectively an eliminator. With Croatia waiting at the end, the race for second may be settled before the final whistle of Round 10.
England lead, but the draw specialists are right on their heels
The table says England are in front, but Group E is still a three-team squeeze. England’s recovery from that opening 3–0 loss in Germany has been emphatic — 17 goals scored and just 4 conceded overall — powered by a ruthless streak against Bosnia and Herzegovina (7–0 and 6–0) and a statement 2–0 win over Germany. Dwight Nye has delivered the big moments, while Randall Elliston keeps posting headline ratings from the back.
Germany are one point back, but their form has swung wildly: brilliant in Round 1, punished 4–1 by Poland, then steadier again — including that high-wire 3–2 win over Algeria. Dirk Meyer remains the metronome in goal, and if Germany avoid another dip, they’re primed to pounce.
Then there’s Poland, unbeaten after six (3W, 3D) and only three goals conceded. They’ve taken points off both England (1–1, 0–0) and Germany (4–1, 0–0) — a profile built for late qualification runs.
Algeria have flashes of bite but no margin for error now, while Bosnia are playing for pride. Round 9 is loaded: Germany should expect a stubborn Bosnia, and Algeria vs Poland feels like the match that could decide whether Poland’s unbeaten campaign becomes a top-two finish.
Positions: 1st - France (12 points), 2nd - Iceland (11 points), 3rd - Sweden (10 points), 4th - Malta (9 points), 5th - Scotland (4 points)
France lead on points, but nobody’s safe
Group F has turned into a proper scrap: France sit top with 12 points, yet they’ve been anything but steady — three wins on the spin have dragged them back into pole position after setbacks to Malta (2–1), Iceland (4–1) and Sweden (3–1). The upside is clear: when France control the rhythm, Alexis Grall keeps finding the net and Maxime Goujon remains their constant, repeatedly landing man-of-the-match-level performances.
Iceland are just one point behind with a game in hand, and they’ve looked the most balanced outfit in the group — big enough to punch (that 4–1 in France) and disciplined enough to grind out results, including a late 1–1 rescue in Scotland. Gudmundur Karl Soelvason has been immense between the posts, while Hoeskuldur Vilbergsson and company have made their finishing count.
Sweden and Malta are right in the chase, too. Sweden have the goals to trouble anyone but have dropped damaging points — including a surprise 1–0 loss to Malta — while Malta’s three wins show real bite, especially at home, where Michael Dowse has swung matches.
With Iceland vs France on 24.02.2026 and Malta facing both Scotland and Iceland, the final week feels like a mini-playoff: one big night could flip the entire top four.
Latvia surge, Portugal wobble — and Switzerland are lurking
The lead has changed hands in Group G, and it’s suddenly a three-team squeeze. Portugal still top the table on 14 points, but the shine has come off after taking just two points from their last three — a 2–2 draw in Switzerland followed by a bruising 3–2 defeat to Latvia. Even with Sergio Pacos consistently delivering (four goals across those recent games) and Eusebio Viana continuing to run matches, Portugal no longer look untouchable.
Latvia are the form team and just a point back with a game in hand. They’ve beaten Ireland twice without conceding (3–0, 1–0) and their statement win over Portugal was powered by an early blitz and another standout showing from Edzus Januss — already decisive with a brace against Mexico and a man-of-the-match display in that marquee victory. Kajs Lerga, meanwhile, keeps popping up with big goals, including the late winner in Dublin.
Don’t sleep on Switzerland either. They’re on 11 points, unbeaten in four, and they’ve shown both punch (the 3–0 over Latvia) and chaos (that 3–3 in Mexico). With Switzerland vs Ireland and Mexico vs Latvia on 24.02.2026, the door is wide open: Latvia can pressure the top, Portugal can’t afford another slip, and Switzerland have a route to steal second if they keep taking points off the contenders.
Romania have turned Group H into a near-formality at the top. Seven matches in, they sit on 16 points with an outrageous defensive record: 10 scored, just 1 conceded. They’ve already shut out Norway twice (a 1–0 in Round 1, then 0–0 away), handled Colombia home and away, and responded to their lone stumble — the 1–0 loss in Italy — by beating the Italians 2–0 last time out. Ferdinand Tecuta has been the reliable difference-maker, with crucial goals in multiple tight wins.
The real drama is underneath them. Norway and Italy are level on 10 points, but both have hit turbulence: Norway bounced from a statement 3–0 win in Italy into back-to-back defeats (2–0 in South Korea, 3–0 in Colombia), while Italy’s form has swung wildly around the scoring bursts of Valentino Maddalena — a hat-trick hero in Colombia, then shut out by Norway and later by Romania.
Colombia, now on 6 points, suddenly have momentum after taking four straight points (1–0 in Korea, then that emphatic 3–0 over Norway). With Italy vs Colombia and South Korea vs Romania on 24.02.2026, the equation is simple: Romania can seal everything with another clean performance, while the chase pack can’t afford another slip — especially with Norway vs Italy looming on 26.02.2026.
Brazil already through, one last spot to settle on Thursday
Brazil have done the job early. In the smallest group — just six matchdays — they’ve taken 11 points from five games and no one can catch them now, meaning qualification is already secured ahead of the finale. The tone was set from the start with a ruthless 4–0 in Bangladesh, and they’ve stayed in control ever since, even when pushed into tight draws.
That leaves the final round on Thursday (26.02.2026) as a straight fight for the second ticket.
Positions: 1st - Serbia (15 points), 2nd - Belgium (15 points), 3rd - Canada (9 points), 4th - Israel (6 points), 5th - Japan (3 points)
Serbia and Belgium level — and heading for a straight shootout
It’s as clean as it gets at the top: Serbia and Belgium are locked together on 15 points with matching records (5W–1L) and identical goal tallies at 15 scored. Serbia’s edge is at the back — just three conceded — and they’ve shown they can swing games brutally, from Nebojsa Rapo’s four-goal burst against Japan (4–0) to a ruthless 4–0 dismissal of Israel. Belgium, meanwhile, have made a habit of decisive second halves, and arrive with momentum after dispatching Canada (3–1) and edging Japan in a thriller (3–2).
Now comes the headline act on 24.02.2026: Belgium vs Serbia, a rematch of the earlier meeting Serbia took 3–1 with only five shots and total efficiency. Belgium will want more of the ball; Serbia will happily wait for the moment to strike.
Canada sit third on 9 points and are very much the “best of the rest,” built on tight wins over Israel (1–0) and Japan (2–1). But their lack of goals (five in six) leaves little margin — they close with Serbia on 26.02.2026 after facing Japan today.
At the bottom, Israel have flickered — notably beating Serbia (2–1) — but the heavy swings have hurt. Japan started with a win, then got dragged into the group’s heavyweight collisions, conceding too often despite flashes from their front line.
Thailand perfect — and everyone else playing for second
Thailand have turned this section into a procession: six wins from six, 18 points, and a goal difference that keeps swelling (18 scored, 3 conceded). They’ve won shootouts, scraps, and statement games — the 10–0 demolition of Greece still hangs over the group — and even their tighter nights (1–0 vs Bulgaria, 1–0 away to Turkey, 2–1 twice against India and Greece) have carried the same theme: control first, then the kill.
Behind them, it’s chaos with a calculator. Turkey sit second on 8 points, but form has dipped hard since the explosive opening 7–0 against Greece — they’ve taken just one win from the next six, including a bruising 4–1 loss in Greece and a 2–0 defeat to India. Bulgaria and India are level on 7 points, with India’s attack louder (11 goals) and Bulgaria’s back line sturdier (6 conceded).
Round 9 on 24.02.2026 sets up a double hinge. Thailand can tighten the screw again against Turkey, while India vs Bulgaria feels like a straight playoff for who gets to chase second place into the final day. And don’t sleep on the closer: Bulgaria still have to face Thailand on 26.02.2026, while India finish against a Greece side that — despite the grim numbers — finally look organised since the managerial change.
Slovenia flawless, Bolivia relentless — and the rest scrambling for pride
Slovenia have been clinical to the point of routine: six wins from six, 19 goals scored, and only four conceded. They’ve won in every way — the early 4–0 statement against Venezuela, the narrow 1–0 away squeeze in Montenegro, and then the fireworks: 5–2 in New Zealand and 4–1 against Bolivia. At the heart of it, Klavdij Mlakar has been a walking headline, including a four-goal burst in the key win over Bolivia.
Bolivia are right behind and refusing to blink: 15 points from 18, 17 scored, and a brutal finishing kick lately — 2–0 in New Zealand followed by a crushing 5–0 over Montenegro. Their only slip was that direct loss to Slovenia, which now looms large with the decider still to come.
Further down, Montenegro have slid into trouble after bright early moments, shipping eight goals in two games against the top two (3–1 and 5–0) and sitting on 9 points from seven. New Zealand at least have signs of life — the wild 4–3 comeback in Venezuela and a clean 3–0 over the same opponents — but consistency has been missing.
Now it tightens. On 24.02.2026, Slovenia can keep the perfect run rolling against New Zealand, while Bolivia face Venezuela knowing they likely need maximum points to take the title fight to the final day. And that finale on 26.02.2026 is as clean as it gets: Bolivia vs Slovenia, first place on the line.
Peru (U17) have turned this group into a one-team exhibition: 12 points from 5 games, 18 goals scored, and emphatic wins over both Bulgaria (8–0) and Spain (4–0) have already put them mathematically into the World Cup places. With a historic peak of a Last 16 (WC 25), they’re now one result away from finishing the job as group winners in style.
The real tension sits behind them. Bulgaria hold second on 9 points, but Mexico are only two back on 7, meaning the final week is still alive. Bulgaria’s surge — including a 3–1 win over Mexico and back-to-back clean-sheet wins over Spain — has them in pole position, yet there’s no margin for complacency: a slip could invite Mexico back into the conversation, especially if Mexico can pull off an upset against Peru.
At the bottom, Spain are already eliminated, stuck on 1 point and winless after five matches — a far cry from their past reputation, and now playing only for pride.
Latvia one point from sealing it, Poland fighting off the pack
Latvia (U17) have been the story of this section: 16 points from 6, unbeaten, and already looking every inch like a side that remembers its past as a WC quarterfinalist (WC 10). With 14 goals scored and a defence that’s conceded just four, they arrive to the round-nine headline meeting knowing that one more point should be enough to make qualification official.
That puts the pressure squarely on Poland. The multiple-time world champions on paper, Poland are second on 13 points after seven games, but the cushion is far thinner than it looks: Slovakia sit on 9 with a match in hand and still have a direct route to 15, while Poland can only add a maximum of three more. In other words, Poland’s margin for error is now measured in inches — and the trip to face Latvia is the toughest test left.
Below, Slovakia remain the true spoiler, while South Korea are clinging to faint hopes on 5 points. Algeria, winless on 2, are already eliminated from World Cup contention, leaving their final fixtures as a last chance to disrupt others rather than rescue themselves.
A three-way traffic jam, and Lithuania can punch their ticket tonight
This group has turned into a tightrope act at the top. Lithuania and Argentina are level on 15 points, but the real danger sits just behind them: USA have 12 from 6 and still have two matches to play. With two rounds left after this one, there is no room for a quiet night.
Lithuania’s case is the simplest. If they can take care of Belgium again — after a 3–0 home win and a 5–0 demolition of India in their last outing — they will be in position to seal qualification immediately. Their campaign has been built on control at one end (5 conceded in 7) and ruthless finishing at the other (18 scored).
For the USA, the equation is equally stark: beat India and the chase becomes a full-blown squeeze game on the final day. They have already shown they can land a punch in this group, hammering Argentina 4–0 away and edging Lithuania 1–0 in January. Another win would leave the leaders looking over their shoulders, not ahead.
Lower down, India are already eliminated on 1 point. Belgium, former runners-up and past medalists, are on 4 and need a perfect finish just to keep the maths alive — this trip to Lithuania is effectively their last stand.
Germany on the brink, but the real drama is the scrap for second
Germany have turned this group into a statement season: 6 wins from 7, 21 goals scored, and a cushion at the summit that leaves them one step from booking their World Cup place. Even their one setback — a late 0–1 loss to China — did little to slow the overall march.
Tonight, though, is where the picture can snap into focus. Germany travel to New Zealand, and a win would remove any lingering doubt about qualification. New Zealand, meanwhile, are not just chasing points — they are defending their position in the top two, and they know exactly what kind of opponent they are facing after losing a wild 3–4 in Germany earlier in the campaign.
The real pressure point sits on the other fixture. China are level with New Zealand on 13 points (with a game in hand), and they meet a Hungary side that has taken only one point all cycle. If China do what the table suggests, the group could head into the final round with second place balanced on a knife edge — and with China vs New Zealand still to come on Thursday.
At the bottom, the margins are gone: Hungary (1 point) and Sweden (1 point) are already eliminated, and Sweden’s defensive record against the contenders has been unforgiving. The spotlight now is firmly on who joins Germany in the top two.
Positions: 1st - Romania (19 points), 2nd - Colombia (14 points), 3rd - Chile (7 points), 4th - Malta (3 points), 5th - Australia (3 points)
Romania already home and dry, Colombia and Chile square up for the last ticket
Romania have been the class of Group E from the opening whistle: unbeaten in seven with 19 points and a ruthless 20–5 goal difference. They’ve paired control with cutting edge, and the campaign’s headline act remains Gino Panc, whose repeated match-winning bursts have kept Romania clear of the pack.
That leaves the real tension in the chase. Colombia sit second on 14 points and arrive with momentum after consecutive wins over Malta and Australia, plus a hard-earned 1–1 draw away to Romania. Tonight’s meeting with Chile is the pivot point of the group: Chile are on 7 points with a game in hand, and only victory keeps their qualification hopes alive.
Chile’s form has been chaotic in the extreme — from the stunning 0–10 collapse against Australia on opening day to a sharp rebound that included a 5–0 win over the same opponents and a stubborn 0–0 draw in Colombia. If they can find that edge again, the final round could become a full-blown shootout for second.
In the other fixture, Australia and Malta meet with both on 3 points. Malta have shown they can land a punch — their 4–0 win over Australia proved that — but with Romania already cruising, the spotlight belongs to the race behind them.
Positions: 1st - Portugal (16 points), 2nd - Venezuela (11 points), 3rd - Croatia (9 points), 4th - Israel (8 points), 5th - Japan (1 point)
Portugal in cruise control, but the race behind them is still wide open
Portugal have turned Group F into a demonstration of control: five wins and a draw, just two goals conceded, and top spot already looking more like a formality than a fight. Even when Venezuela held them to 0–0 on opening day, Portugal simply kept stacking clean sheets and edging games — capped by that decisive 1–0 in the return meeting.
The real story now sits underneath. Venezuela are second on 11 points with a modest goal return, but they’ve been hard to crack and timely when it matters — wins over Japan (twice) and Croatia, plus a 1–1 draw with Israel, have kept them in the driver’s seat.
Croatia, on 9 points, have built a late surge after early stumbles. They’ve beaten Japan again and followed it with a statement 2–0 over Israel, meaning their showdown with Venezuela is now a straight pressure test: win it, and second place is suddenly there for the taking.
Israel remain on the fringe with 8 points from seven matches — capable of big moments (their early win over Croatia), but the damage from dropped points and that wild 2–2 with Japan has left them needing help. Japan, meanwhile, are playing for pride, still searching for a first win and too often undone by fine margins.
Slovenia are running away with it — Serbia’s only job now is to keep pace
Slovenia have turned Group G into a goal-hungry procession: six wins from six, an outrageous 39–3 goal difference, and scarcely a hint of vulnerability. They opened with an eye-watering 18–0 against England, backed it up by swatting aside Denmark and Iceland, and then laid down the ultimate marker with a 4–0Serbia. With two matches still to play, top spot already feels locked in.
Behind them, Serbia have also piled up numbers — including a stunning 19–0 demolition of Denmark — but that direct defeat in Slovenia leaves them chasing rather than leading. The late 3–3 draw in Iceland showed they can be rattled, and it’s exactly the kind of slip that makes the final head-to-head with Slovenia on 26 February look more like a statement opportunity than a title decider.
England have at least steadied after a nightmare start and a managerial change, responding with wins over Denmark and Iceland. Still, the damage is heavy: nine scored, thirty-three conceded, and the table reflects that imbalance.
Iceland have shown fight — especially in that six-goal draw with Serbia — and their remaining games against Slovenia and England will decide whether their campaign ends in respectability. Denmark, meanwhile, are simply trying to stop the bleeding after two historic scorelines, with England next up offering their clearest chance to salvage something tangible.
Austria keep their nerve, but Italy still have the knife for the finale
Austria remain the one unbeaten side in Group H, and they’ve done it the hard way: not just by smashing the bottom end, but by repeatedly edging the tight games that decide sections. The comeback win in Canada set the tone, the 2–1 victory in Italy was the headline, and even when the attack stalled — 0–0 with Canada, 1–1 in Bangladesh — Austria still found a way to protect first place at 17 points.
Italy are the clear pursuers and the one side that can still turn this into a real photo finish. They’ve piled up goals against Greece, handled Canada early, and showed their firepower again in Bangladesh, but the draw in Canada and that home loss to Austria mean the margin for error is gone. With a game in hand and 13 points from six, Italy’s run-in is simple: keep winning, and set up the rematch on 26 February with everything on the line.
Canada have been stubbornly competitive — beating Bangladesh twice and taking a point off Italy — yet the 0–0 in Austria felt like a missed chance to truly crash the top-two party. At 11 points, they need help, but they’re still close enough to make every late slip expensive.
Lower down, Bangladesh have at least shown bite, most notably by taking a point off Austria, while Greece are still searching for a first point and first foothold before the curtain falls.
Turkey perfect so far, while the chase is still wide open
Turkey have turned Group I into a one-team march. Six played, six won, and they’ve barely had to shift out of second gear: a 4–1 and 3–0 double over South Africa, two wins over Czech Republic (including a late 3–2 escape away), and a ruthless 3–0 in Montenegro to keep a spotless 18-point record. Even in the quieter moments — like the 1–0 over Uruguay — Turkey’s control has been enough to keep everyone else looking over their shoulder, not up the table.
Behind them, it’s a genuine scramble. South Africa sit second on nine points, built on two emphatic 3–0 wins over Uruguay and a pair of draws that stopped the floor from collapsing. But the inability to land a punch on Turkey has left them vulnerable, and the upcoming meeting with Rep. of Montenegro could decide who finishes as Turkey’s closest rival.
Montenegro are right there on eight after mixing a walkover win in Round 1 with gritty draws and a key 2–1 response against Czech Republic. Czech Republic (five points) have shown they can create chaos — the wild 3–3 with South Africa proved that — but defensive leaks have repeatedly undone them.
At the bottom, Uruguay have struggled to turn possession into points, and that opening no-show still hangs over their campaign. With Turkey next, survival-minded pragmatism may be the only play.
Group J has tightened into a classic late-season squeeze: Bosnia and Herzegovina and Moldova are level on 14 points, with Ireland just a step behind on 13 — and the final week is packed with direct collisions.
Bosnia have looked the most complete unit over the long haul, built on a defence that has conceded only three goals in seven games. They’ve also shown they can deliver a statement when needed: the 3–1 win over Scotland was powered by a ruthless Stepinac hat-trick in four minutes, while Russia were brushed aside again in a controlled 3–0 away win. Still, dropped points have kept the door open — the 1–0 defeat in Moldova and the recent 1–1 draw between the top two mean nothing is settled.
Moldova, unbeaten and increasingly confident, have paired a tidy back line with timely goals. Constantin Mura has been their closer, scoring twice to rescue a 2–2 draw in Ireland and striking again in the 1–1 against Bosnia — results that have put them right on the brink.
Ireland’s case is simpler: they’ve beaten everyone they were supposed to, including a dominant 4–0 win in Scotland and a pair of clean sheets against Russia, but that narrow 1–0 loss in Bosnia means they likely need a big finish to jump both leaders.
Next up, it’s all consequence: Ireland vs Bosnia is a straight fight for control, while Scotland vs Moldova offers the unbeaten side no room for complacency.
Switzerland regain the edge, but France still have a path
Switzerland have wrestled back control of Group K at the perfect time. The leaders sit on 14 points after seven games, and they’ve done it the hard way: not by outscoring everyone, but by refusing to give much away (just five conceded) and picking their moments in the biggest fixtures.
The turning point came in the head-to-heads with France. France struck first in January with a composed 2–0 win, only for Switzerland to answer with a statement of their own: a 2–0 victory that flipped the momentum back and created this one-point gap at the top. That response also underlined Switzerland’s strongest trait — when the pressure rises, they get cleaner, not looser.
France remain the most explosive side in the group, with 15 goals in six matches and a brutal 5–0 dismantling of Thailand highlighting their ceiling. But the stumble in Estonia (1–1) and the latest defeat to Switzerland mean their margin for error is gone. They’re chasing, and they know it.
Behind them, Thailand and Albania have traded punches all campaign, while Estonia have made a habit of frustrating bigger names — Switzerland were held to 1–1, and France were dragged into the same scoreline.
Now the run-in is neatly set: Switzerland face Thailand with first place in their hands, while France must take care of business and hope the door opens.
Brazil set the pace as the Netherlands try to keep contact
Brazil have turned Group L into a chase. Six matches in, they’re unbeaten with 16 points and a blistering return of 19 goals, the sort of numbers that leave everyone else playing for scraps. Even the one team to slow them down — the Netherlands in a stubborn 0–0 on opening night — eventually felt the full force, beaten 3–2 when they met again.
That result keeps the Netherlands in the mix on 13 points, and they’ve earned it with control and composure: a 3–0 at Norway and a ruthless 4–0 against Bolivia showed their ceiling. The task now is simple: keep winning and hope Brazil finally blink.
Behind the leading pair, the race has been messy and physical. Bolivia and Norway are level on nine points but have taken very different routes — Bolivia capable of chaos and big swings (including a 5–1 win in Finland), Norway more up-and-down, even after thumping the same opponents 5–2. With both having already dropped four games apiece, they’ve left themselves needing help as well as points.
At the bottom, Finland are still looking for a first return. They’ve at least shown flashes going forward, but conceding heavily has kept every match a steep climb.
Next up, Brazil can tighten their grip against Bolivia, while the Netherlands will expect to take care of Finland and keep the pressure on before the finale.
